Rising geopolitical tensions have once again become one of the dominant factors shaping valuations across global markets. The latest talks in Geneva delivered only limited progress on Iran's nuclear program, and Washington — according to reports — has set a 10-15 day deadline for a breakthrough, while markets are increasingly pricing in a non-zero probability of military action. The United States has amassed the largest concentration of air forces in the region since 2003, while Tehran has fortified strategic facilities and intensified its rhetoric. Nevertheless, the war in Ukraine and US-China trade relations remain in the background. In this environment — alongside a packed schedule of FOMC member speeches and key PCE inflation data on Thursday — particular attention should be paid to OIL WTI, US100, and GOLD.
OIL WTI
WTI is incorporating a growing geopolitical risk premium. Investors are assessing asymmetric upside risks related to potential supply disruptions. Iran produces around 3-4 million barrels per day, and 20-25% of global oil trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint. Even a limited, targeted strike on military infrastructure could trigger retaliatory threats against shipping routes and energy facilities in the region, increasing volatility across the entire energy market. The market's base-case scenario currently assumes a limited operation aimed at pushing Tehran back to the negotiating table. In such a case, oil could maintain a moderate risk premium. However, if escalation were to spiral out of control — particularly in the event of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal — price gains could accelerate rapidly.
US100
The Nasdaq-100 sits at the intersection of geopolitical risk and uncertain monetary policy prospects. Rising tensions in the Middle East generate a classic risk-off impulse, which particularly affects growth assets and those sensitive to interest rate changes. At the same time, higher oil prices complicate the inflation outlook, potentially reinforcing the Fed's "higher for longer" narrative at a time when markets were expecting confirmation of a disinflationary trend following the latest CPI data. A series of FOMC member speeches, culminating in Thursday's PCE data and Friday's PPI release, may increase volatility in index futures. If policymakers emphasize a more cautious stance, US100 could come under pressure — especially given the recent period of consolidation, which suggests that the latest upside catalysts may have been exhausted.
GOLD
Gold has once again reinforced its role as a primary hedge against risk and has returned toward the 5,000 USD level. At the current stage, prices appear to be in a waiting mode for the next catalyst following the recent sharp sell-off. If tensions in the Middle East return to the headlines, global capital may once again rotate toward safe-haven assets. Conversely, tangible diplomatic progress or a limited military operation without broader consequences could curb demand.
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