Russia's invasion of Ukraine is now in its fifth week, and neither side has made much progress. Beyond the military front, attention is focused on Russian energy commodities and pledges to require payment in rubles. U.S. indices may have a chance to move next week on U.S. labor market data, while EUR traders will focus on inflation data.
US500
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Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appAs the new month begins, the time has come for release of US jobs data. The NFP report for March will be released on Friday at 1:30 pm BST while ADP estimates will be published on Wednesday at 1:15 pm BST. Markets expect a month of solid growth in employment with around half a million new jobs added. Apart from labor market data, investors should keep in mind that US President Biden is expected to announce the 2023 budget on Monday. Both of those events may help US500 extend its ongoing recovery move.
EURUSD
While USD is expected to experience some additional volatility during jobs data release as well, EURUSD will also get a chance to move on Wednesday when Germany releases CPI data for March. Market expects an acceleration in headline measure above 6% YoY, what would be the highest level in the current cycle. Still, ECB is reluctant to signal more hawkish policy allowing the main currency pair to slide to levels not seen since mid-2020.
NATGAS
Russian President Putin ordered Gazprom to start accepting payments from so-called "unfriendly countries" in RUB. A 1-week deadline was set to prepare systems for the change. This deadline passes next week and it is unsure what will happen next. Russia may want to renegotiate current contracts to include RUB payments. However, if counterparties do not agree, those contracts may be dropped. It could put further upward pressure on NATGAS which has recently reapproached year-to-date highs.
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