With China’s “Two Sessions” (the most important political meetings of the PRC) beginning midweek, a series of global PMI and CPI releases, and Friday’s US labor market report, markets are entering a period of heightened intensity. This comes alongside the OPEC+ meeting (Sunday), UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement (Tuesday), and central bank communication (the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday; ECB meeting accounts on Thursday). Key instruments to watch: EURUSD, US500, and oil (Brent/WTI).
EURUSD
EURUSD will act as a barometer of relative macro data strength and central bank expectations in the coming days. On the euro area side, key releases include CPI inflation (Tuesday), services PMI and unemployment data (Wednesday), and euro area GDP (Friday). In the US, focus will be on ISM manufacturing (Monday), ADP and ISM services (Wednesday), and the NFP report with the unemployment rate (Friday).
The risk for euro bulls is a scenario in which a weaker labor market report is not enough to shift Fed rhetoric if wage growth and services inflation remain elevated. On the other hand, clear signs of cooling in the US labor market could quickly translate into lower short-end yields and EURUSD appreciation.
A dovish reinterpretation of Fed policy combined with stable inflation in the euro area could support further upside, while “sticky” US inflation and hawkish signals from Fed officials would reopen downside risks.
US500
The US equity market enters the week balancing macroeconomic uncertainty with support from corporate earnings. The index will first react to hard activity data (PMI, ISM), and then to Fed communication — particularly the Beige Book (the cyclical report on current economic conditions) and the interpretation of Friday’s labor market report.
Earnings season also remains crucial. Reports from companies such as Broadcom, Costco, Target, Kroger, Marvell, MongoDB, and CrowdStrike could trigger strong rotations between quality growth, cyclical sectors, and defensives.
OIL (Brent / WTI)
Oil starts the week influenced by political risk and supply decisions. Sunday’s (08.03.2026) OPEC+ meeting will be the first major catalyst, shaping expectations around production discipline. Midweek, attention will shift to China — PMI releases (Wednesday) and the start of parliamentary sessions (“Two Sessions”) may alter the demand narrative.
Hawkish signals from OPEC+ and constructive communication from China could reignite upward momentum. Disappointing data from China or a more accommodative supply stance would limit upside potential and keep the market in a broad consolidation range.
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