Financial markets are heading into the second half of the year after a few very turbulent months. While June was quiet in terms of trade negotiations between the US and other global economies, there was a complete escalation of the situation in the Middle East. With a ceasefire now in place between Israel and Iran, the market will now turn its attention to trade negotiations, another earnings season, and the pricing of further moves by central banks. In this context, the following week it will be worth paying attention to markets such as EURUSD, GOLD, and the US100.
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Next week will be rich in important macroeconomic data, including figures from the US labour market. Due to the Independence Day holiday in the United States on Friday, all domestic markets will be closed, and the release of labour market data will be moved to Thursday. Nevertheless, a very important event for both the euro and the dollar will be the ECB's Economic Forum in Sintra, where we will hear from key figures such as Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde. It is worth noting that the EURUSD pair has broken through the 1.1700 level, so the speeches by key central bankers and the US labour market data could be crucial for the continuation or reversal of the trend.
GOLD
The de-escalation of the geopolitical situation globally has led to a significant decline in gold prices in recent sessions. Gold has fallen to its lowest levels since the end of May, and even a weak dollar has not led to an improvement in the situation. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that US stock indices are at historical highs, so the emergence of risk and a correction in the equity market could once again lead to a revival in the gold market. In the context of macroeconomic data, the key figures will be the US ISM indices on Tuesday and Thursday, followed by the US labour market data on Thursday. If the data is weak, it could lead to further increases in expectations for US rate cuts.
US100
The ceasefire in the Middle East and positive news regarding trade negotiations between the US and other countries have led US indices to new historical highs. With a lack of immediate risk, the market will once again focus on the earnings of US companies. While the first days of July will not bring any major corporate earnings reports, the market will be pricing in the upcoming reports from giants such as Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft. Of course, one of the driving forces behind the recent gains was Nvidia, but its results will not be known until late August.
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