We are about to begin the last month of trading on international financial markets in 2025. This week, investors will be focusing primarily on the latest key data from the US ahead of the Fed meeting, further talks on the Ukraine-Russia peace plan, and comments from Ueda of the BoJ, which will determine whether interest rates will be raised in Japan in December. For this reason, it will be worth watching the US2000, OIL.WTI and USDJPY.
US2000
In the coming days, the US2000 will largely depend on the September PCE index, which will be published on 5 December, just before the FOMC meeting on 9–10 December. Small and medium-sized companies are more sensitive to credit conditions and interest rate trajectories than large companies, so higher inflation data could increase supply pressure after the recent rebound. The market is currently in a blackout period from 29 November to 11 December, which means that Fed policymakers will not comment publicly on monetary policy. Without signals from Fed bankers, the US2000 will depend almost exclusively on "hard data", which is why the market will pay the most attention to this reading on the publication side.
OIL.WTI
Crude oil will be largely dependent on the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, 30 November, but the key variable remains the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which could radically change the path of the WTI price. OIL.WTI is currently hovering around $58–59 per barrel, moving downwards under pressure from expectations of a significant production surplus in Q1 2026 (the IEA forecast is +4 million barrels per day). OPEC+'s decision to possibly halt further production growth in Q1 2026 has a chance of being officially ratified after recent comments suggesting a pause, but the market is sceptical about this achievement given the fundamental oversupply stimulated by countries outside the cartel.
USDJPY
Inflation in Tokyo at 2.8% y/y in November confirmed that price pressure in Japan is increasing, which reinforces the scenario of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan as early as December or January 2026. The swap market indicates that the market is pricing in a more than 50% probability of BOJ action in December and an 80% probability (cumulative value) by the end of January. However, the key event for the Japanese yen remains Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech on Monday in Nagoya, which may clearly define the direction of monetary policy ahead of the BOJ meeting on 18-19 December. The conflict between the BOJ's hawkish monetary policy and the dovish sentiments of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who favours greater economic stimulus, introduces uncertainty about the BOJ's ultimate commitment to tightening.
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