S&P 500 contracts are rising by 0.3%, approaching historic highs. The Nasdaq 100 is also trending upwards, strengthening by 0.6%. One of the key factors supporting these gains is the inflation data published this week.
Yesterday's CPI reading was consistent with expectations, easing investor concerns about the spread of price pressures, while today's PPI data surprised on the downside (regarding the headline measure). The chances of a September interest rate hike have fallen from approximately 50% at the beginning of the week to just over 30% currently.
Figure 1: Market Implied Fed Policy Pricing: SEP2026 Meeting (2025 - 2026)
Source: XTB Research, 13.08.2026
There has also been a significant shift in the pricing of subsequent committee actions. A hike before the end of the year is no longer fully priced in, and an upward move in October is increasingly viewed with doubt by the markets.
Figure 2: Fed Implied Policy Path (Hikes/Cuts) (2026 - 2027)
Source: XTB Research, 13.08.2026
Investors may also be pleased with lower WTI crude oil prices (-2.5%), currently priced at just over 81 dollars per barrel.
Figure 3: Winners and Losers in the Nasdaq 100 (13.08.2026)
Source: XTB Research, 04.08.2026
The Nasdaq 100 is led today by CoreWeave, Netflix, and AppLovin, companies that have not performed particularly well over the last 12 months. On the other side, we find Cisco Systems, which published its Q2 results yesterday after the market closed.
The company estimated its future sales linked to the AI data centre boom at 7.5 billion dollars for the current fiscal year. This was disappointing for investors, as the company had secured AI-related orders totalling 9.3 billion dollars in the last year alone.
Combining this with insights from previous publications, it can be concluded that investors are currently focusing primarily on the rate at which incoming demand translates into hard revenue. High order levels or exposure to the boom in capital expenditure are no longer sufficient.
Figure 4: Dashboard for Cisco
Source: XTB Research, 13.08.2026
Company news
- Cerebras Systems ($CBRS.US): Shares are seeing significant declines due to more cautious revenue growth forecasts for their proprietary AI chips.
- Accelerant ($ARX.US): A massive share price increase (+44%) following the announcement of the company's acquisition by the Thoma Bravo fund in a cash tender offer at 20.25 USD per share.
- Harmonic ($HLIT.US): An increase of approximately 25% after the publication of financial results that significantly exceeded market expectations.
- Birkenstock ($BIRK.US): Shares are rising by +17% following the upward revision of full-year adjusted EBITDA forecasts and better-than-expected Q2 sales.
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