US500 hits new all-time high📈Applied Materials loses, RareEarth USA surges on US deal rumors

• Markets continue to rise despite growing odds of an extended U.S. government shutdown (Kalshi estimates around 14 days).
• The US500 is pushing to new all-time highs, approaching the 6,800 level after weaker U.S. ISM Services data.
• Applied Materials shares are sliding after the company warned that U.S. trade policy will weigh on earnings.
• USA Rare Earth, an early-stage rare-earth mining company, is surging on speculation of a potential deal with the U.S. government.

The US500 index is climbing to fresh record highs, while the RSI indicator has moved above 73 points—signaling strong optimism and upward momentum across the broader market, despite the government shutdown. Interestingly, following 86% of past shutdowns, the S&P 500 traded higher 12 months later with an average gain of +12.7%, although it ended the shutdown higher in only about 55% of cases. The reason lies in history: shutdowns in the 1970s and 1980s were often accompanied by sharp selloffs. Since 1995, however, the S&P 500 has advanced after every subsequent shutdown. On the macro side, ISM data showed a steep drop in new orders, which prevented the headline figure from meeting forecasts; meanwhile, the employment and prices sub-indices posted slight gains, beating expectations.

Source: xStation5

Stock News

• Applied Materials (AMAT.US) fell around 2% after the semiconductor equipment giant warned its fiscal 2026 revenue could drop by $600 million. The decline stems from a new rule introduced by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security, expected to weigh on future sales.

• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) gained 1.3% after UBS upgraded the copper and gold producer to buy from neutral, signaling greater confidence in the company’s outlook.

• Baidu (BIDU.US) advanced nearly 2% after Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the Chinese search engine operator to $140 from $100, reflecting stronger growth expectations.

• USA Rare Earth (USAR.US) surged about 10% after CNBC reported the company is in direct talks with the Trump administration. The news fueled speculation of a potential deal with the U.S. government, boosting investor optimism.

• Maplebear (CART.US), parent of Instacart, slipped about 1.5% after Piper Sandler’s Tom Champion downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight, citing intensifying competition in the delivery-services sector.

• Tronox Holdings (TROX.US) declined nearly 3% after JPMorgan cut its rating from overweight to neutral, pointing to deteriorating conditions in the titanium dioxide industry that may weigh on near-term performance.

U.S. ISM Services Data – September

• ISM Services PMI: 50.0 (forecast 51.7; previous 52.0)

• ISM Services Employment: 47.2 (forecast 46.6; previous 46.5)

• ISM Services New Orders: 50.4 (forecast 54.0; previous 56.0)

• ISM Services Prices Paid: 69.4 (forecast 68.0; previous 69.2)

Technicals (AMAT.US & FCX.US)

Applied Materials (AMAT.US): Shares pulled back after reaching the 71.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June 2024 rally. The first significant support in the correction scenario lies around $205, defined by prior price reactions and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Source: xStation5

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.US): Shares are attempting to return to an uptrend, staging a V-shaped rebound from the recent price low near $32.

Source: xStation5