- The decision will be published at 7 PM UK time.
- The Dot Plot will also be published at 7 PM UK time.
- Kevin Warsh’s conference will begin at 7:30 PM UK time.
- The committee is widely expected to hold rates at an unchanged level.
- The decision will be published at 7 PM UK time.
- The Dot Plot will also be published at 7 PM UK time.
- Kevin Warsh’s conference will begin at 7:30 PM UK time.
- The committee is widely expected to hold rates at an unchanged level.
To begin with – a change in interest rates across the Atlantic today would be a sensation. Attention will therefore focus on two key aspects – the Committee’s interest rate projections and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference. The Fed’s new forecasts for economic growth and inflation will also be of note.
Figure 1: US Interest Rates & Bond Yields (1998 - 2026)
Source: XTB Research, 17.06.2026
The chairman chosen by Trump will face a difficult task. Many expect him to seek to please the president by adopting a dovish stance. At the same time, his message will be scrutinised closely by analysts around the world, who will be watching to see whether there is a significant discrepancy between Warsh’s statements and the signals coming from the rest of the Committee. If this is the case, the new chairman could lose investors’ confidence right from the start. It thus seems unlikely that he will opt for a very sharp shift in rhetoric.
Current conditions do not seem to allow much dovishness. That said, the signing of a memorandum between the US and Iran, scheduled for Friday, should make Warsh’s task somewhat easier, allowing him to take a somewhat more detached approach to the inflation risks that have recently been at the forefront. Crucially, his comments will be weighed against the Committee’s interest rate projections (the Dot Plot).
Ahead of the decision, the market remains unusually calm. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are down 0.1% today, as is the dollar against the benchmark euro. The FOMC statement, which will be accompanied by the aforementioned Dot Plot and Warsh’s press conference, may put an end to this idyll.
—
Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB
US Open: Awaiting Warsh
BREAKING: American consumer still strong. Dollar looks strong after retail sales
Oil prices consolidate in anticipation of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz
Daily Summary - Oil Nearly Erases War Gains as Wall Street Pulls Back Ahead of Fed Decision (16.06.2026)
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
