Cryptocurrency market sentiment cooled at the beginning of the week, with the pullback extending from key levels in both on-chain indicators and technical analysis. The area around $80,000 once again proved to be a psychological barrier that the market has been unable to break at this stage of the rebound. Importantly, in recent days we have observed accelerated Bitcoin distribution from large addresses, including whales. This alone does not necessarily signal a return to a downtrend, but it does raise significant doubts about the sustainability of the current recovery. Bitcoin is up almost 30% from the February low, which support profit realization.
Bitcoin (H1 timeframe)
Bitcoin retraced from around $79,000 to $76,000, while the RSI dropped to just below 30, suggesting oversold conditions. It is also worth noting the MACD, which has cooled.
Source: xStation5
Bitcoin has already gone through three significant downward impulses, and although each “rebound phase” differed slightly, similarities to the previous two such phases cannot be ruled out. This could potentially push the price toward the $50,000 area.
Source: xStation5
Looking at historical Bitcoin declines during bear markets, a pullback toward the on-chain “Realized Price” level at around $54,000 appears plausible in a bearish scenario. If we treat the previous three bear markets as a reference point, Bitcoin’s price could fall to approximately $44,000 (delta price) — in each prior bear market, the price ultimately retraced to this level. Of course, this does not guarantee a repeat of such a scenario in the future.
Source: BGeometrics
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