- Bitcoin records a weak opening of the week and loses similarly to Ethereum, about 2%
- The average short-term trader in BTC is currently trading at a loss (falling below the Short Term Holder Realized Price)
- The largest cryptocurrency is headed for its biggest weekly decline since April (-5%)
- Investors in U.S. ETFs are realizing gains, indicating 'dormant' demand ahead of the vacations
- Microstrategy (MSTR.US) buys another 11,900 BTC for about $786 million
- Standard Chartered launches Bitcoin spot trading in its FX division
- Whale-related activity in the BTC derivatives market wanes
Demand in US spot ETFs is falling
Ethereum has settled below $3,400, and Bitcoin is defending the $62,000 level on Monday - a slide below the $60,000 support could result in a repeat of a temporary panic, similar to the one in April, this year when the BTC price also 'nudged' below key on-chain supports. In the past seven days, the largest outflow from ETFs occurred on June 13, when $226 million flowed out of BTC, but the trend continues. CryptoQuant indicates that there is a 'risk off' sentiment among whales trading Bitcoin and Bitcoin-based derivatives, with the number of trades above $100,000 falling 43% over the weekend (Friday-Sunday, June 23).
The on-chain Inter Exchange Flow Pulse indicator indicated a 'red' level suggesting low interest in Bitcoin among institutions and little volume moving between the spot market and derivatives. Bitcoin's statistically weaker performance during the summer may discourage buying capital from entering the market in July and August. ETFs, as today's primary gauge of investment sentiment around BTC, suggest sell sentiment or lack of interest. Last Friday's outflows amounted to just over $100 million, but interestingly ETFs have recorded virtually no inflows since June 12, which may suggest a temporary 'demand exhaustion'.
Start investing today or test a free demo
Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appETF funds have been selling Bitcoin since June 12, and are recording their biggest selling 'streak' since March, after a recent unsuccessful BTC price rally above $70,000. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. , XTB Research
Bitcoin chart (D1 interval)
Looking at the last two Fibonacci retracement measures of the upward waves from the summer of 2023 and January 2024, we can see that the $60,000 and $62,500 zones may prove to be important short-term support levels for BTC. A fall below this level could lead to a test of the area around $55,000 (the area of the SMA200), and in a situation of extremes, even $50,000. The simple moving averages SMA100 and SMA50 signal important short-term resistance, at $66,000 per BTC.
Source: xStation5
Source: xStation5
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
