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The new week begins with extremely low volatility and moderate gains. On the other hand, this situation may change, as the FOMC minutes are scheduled for release on Wednesday, and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins on Friday.
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The stock market is very calm. Last week's gains are continuing. The US500 is up 0.55%, and the US100 is up 0.45%. In Europe, DAX index gained 0.5% today, while the W20 was up 0.38%. During the Asian session, Nikkei's situation looked weak, but the JP225 contracts have gained slightly since Friday's close.
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Kashkari, in an interview with the WSJ, believes that inflation has made progress, but the labor market is sending worrying signals. Despite this, in September, the Fed should decide on a standard 25 basis point rate cut.
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Daly from the Fed stated that it is time to consider lowering interest rates. However, Daly emphasized that the Fed should approach rate cuts cautiously and gradually.
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Goolsbee from the Fed remarked that credit conditions in the U.S. are restrictive and continue to tighten. Goolsbee said he is not certain if the Fed will lower rates in September, but a lack of such a decision could harm the labor market.
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The market is pricing in just under 100 basis points of cuts this year, while economists predict the Fed will cut rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year.
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Natural gas (NATGAS) is gaining more than 5% today due to forecasts indicating higher temperatures.
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WTI oil is down nearly 3% amid reports of intense efforts towards a ceasefire in the Middle East. On the other hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is escalating, though Ukraine's actions may be related to a better negotiating stance ahead of potential ceasefire talks.
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Industrial metals are gaining noticeably, with increases of over 2% visible in zinc and aluminum. Silver is up 0.8%, while gold is down 0.2% after reaching new all-time highs last Friday.
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The dollar weakened today. The yen gained the most amid speculation about a possible rate hike by the BoJ as early as September. Antipodean currencies also made significant gains.
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