Daily Summary: Lower CPI gives investors hopes while tariffs create uncertainty

9:55 pm 12 March 2025

  • US indices rebounded as the S&P 500 rose 0.71%, Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.33%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average held flat after cooler-than-expected inflation data eased recession fears.
  • February inflation came in at 2.8% year-over-year, below expectations and showing deceleration from January's 3.0%, reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut in June.

  • Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum triggered immediate retaliation from the EU and Canada, escalating trade tensions as both trading partners announced billions in countermeasures.

  • European feed manufacturers warned that potential EU tariffs on US grains would harm the continent's livestock sector, which relies heavily on imported animal feed, suggesting trade in feed grains could help resolve the broader tariff dispute.

  • Intel shares surged 4.7% on reports that TSMC proposed forming a consortium with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom to operate Intel's struggling foundry business with Trump administration approval.

  • Apple continued its slide, falling another 5% after reportedly delaying advanced Siri features until 2026, with Morgan Stanley analysts warning the setback could reduce iPhone upgrade incentives amid growing tariff concerns.

  • Goldman Sachs cut its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,200 from 6,500, citing reduced GDP growth forecasts, higher assumed tariff rates, and increased market uncertainty.

  • BNP Paribas forecasts gold will breach $3,000 per ounce in coming months amid "Trump tariff chaos," with the safe-haven asset already outperforming major stock indices year-to-date.

  • Hedge fund de-grossing over Friday and Monday marked the largest sell-off in four years according to Goldman Sachs, with more potential market volatility expected as the unwinding continues.

  • Crude oil inventories rose by 1.448 million barrels according to EIA data, less than the forecasted 2.1 million barrels, suggesting stronger demand and helping WTI prices rebound 2.3% to $67.75 while still remaining near three-year lows. 

  • The forex market sees a slight strengthening of the US dollar, gaining 0.1% against a currency basket. The Canadian dollar is the strongest performer among the G10, rising 0.5% amid ongoing trade tariff tensions.

  • In the cryptocurrency market, major assets are facing declines. Ethereum is down around 2.6%, Solana has dropped by 1%, while Bitcoin remains stable at approximately $82,770.

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