Daily Summary - Markets Await Trump's Address

Financial markets continue to recover following recent comments indicating a desire for a swift end to the conflict with Iran.

Donald Trump indicates that Iran has requested a ceasefire. Meanwhile, strikes from both the United States and Iran continue. Iran stated on public television that Trump's claims are false.

Donald Trump points out that a key aspect of a ceasefire is the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran is carrying out its largest attacks on Israel since the start of the war, while also targeting a Qatari tanker, an Amazon data center in Bahrain, and the aluminum producer EGA in the United Arab Emirates.

Axios reports that talks between Iran and the US are ongoing, but statements from both the Iranian President and the Supreme Leader indicate that Iran's conditions remain unchanged (full US withdrawal from the region, reparations, and recognition of Iran as the "owner" of the Strait of Hormuz).

Vance reportedly stated that the United States intends to intensify attacks to pressure Iran into an agreement. The Atlantic reports that the US is allegedly preparing for a ground invasion aimed at seizing Kharg Island and securing enriched uranium.

Tonight at 3:00 AM CET (9:00 PM in Washington), Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a televised address to the nation across all major networks.

The ISM Manufacturing report showed the headline index rising to 52.7, exceeding expectations of 52.3 and the previous level of 52.4. However, a key takeaway is the sharp rise in the prices sub-index to 78.3 from the previous 70.5. The new orders sub-index fell to 53.5, while the employment sub-index dropped to 48.7.

The ADP report showed a reading of 62,000, against expectations of 40,000 and a previous level of 63,000.

US crude oil inventories continue to rise, while gasoline and distillate stocks are falling. This highlights a rather interesting local situation in the US. SPR inventories saw only a minimal decline last week.

The final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in slightly higher at 51.6 points, compared to the preliminary reading of 51.4 points.

A major surprise was the jump in Switzerland's Manufacturing PMI to 53.3 points, despite expectations of a drop to 47 points. This marks the first reading above 50 points since 2022. EURCHF is retreating significantly after yesterday's gains.

Index futures are recording another day of spectacular gains on hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict. The JP225 rose 3% today, while European contracts climbed by more than 1% in most cases. The DE40 rose 1.3%, and the SPA35 surged 2.3%.

In the US, futures are also trading higher. The US100 is up 1.7%, while the US500 is gaining 1.1%.

Oil prices are seeing a sharp pullback today. Following a massive downward roll, Brent crude is trading at just 102 USD per barrel, down 1%. WTI crude is testing the 100 USD level. US Natural Gas is falling 2.8% due to low consumption and high production.

Diminishing risk, despite potential lingering uncertainty, is leading to a recovery in the precious metals market. Gold is rebounding by 2.5%, testing the 4800 level, while silver is up 0.7%, testing 75 USD.

EURUSD has moved above the 1.1600 level, breaking the 2026 downtrend line, signaling a clear pivot in the market.

Bitcoin is seeing a bounce toward the 69,000 area, remaining one of the less volatile assets recently.

Maersk reports that cargo transport will be routed through Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

The French Navy indicates that greater coordination among various nations is needed to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open. It also emphasized there are no signs of mining and that China must do more to help restore trade.

According to White House officials, Trump is expected to announce tonight that operations in Iran are slated to conclude within a 2-3 week timeframe.