- U.S. GDP came in stronger than expected with growth of 3.3% at an annualized rate for Q4 2023, with deflator at 1.5% and PCE Core inflation at 2.0%. That was a very good report from the perspective of further moderation in inflation and a soft landing
- US jobless claims rebound to 214,000 against a forecast of 200,000 and the previous level of 187,000. In addition, we also learned good US data of new home sales. Sales hit hard in December after November slump
- Kansas City Fed Index came in -9 vs -3 exp. and -1 previously (Manufacturing Kansas Fed: -17 vs -4 exp.). It's another weak reading from US, regional data
- The ECB kept rates unchanged and indicating that cuts will take place later in the year. However, the ECB chair, Lagarde did not sound hawkish, so the market is raising expectations for rate cuts this year.
- EURUSD loses as much as 0.4% intraday and tests the 1.0850 area after favorable reading from US and mixed signals from Lagarde stance
- IBM reports strong Q4 2023 results, beating analysts' expectations for both revenue and profit. The company also issued an upbeat outlook for 2024, with a strong forecast for free cash flow and revenue growth. The company gained as much as 13% today and is about 10% away from historical highs. The company is considered an undervalued participant in the artificial technology trend
- Tesla (TSLA.US) shares lost as much as 12% in today's session after tenuous forecasts for 2024 failed to assuage investor concerns about slowing demand. Fourth-quarter profits and gross margins were below the average estimates of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg agencies.
- American Airlines and IBM shares gain strongly during the U.S. session, both supported by great results and guidance for the rest of the year
- Northrop Grumman shares lose 7%, after the company reported that its 2015 contract to produce B-21 Raider bombers could result in losses of $500 million per bomber. Also, Boeing shares record 10% sell-off as regulatory agency FAA halts production expansion of 737-MAX model
- U.S. gas stocks are down 326 bcf on expectations of a 318 bcf decline, with a previous decline of 154 bcf. Inventories fall marginally above estimated values. This is the third decline in stocks above 300 bcf since 1990. Nevertheless, this was strongly expected, so the reaction to the data is downward. On the other hand, we are seeing a very strong decline in comparative stocks, although the weather outlook suggests that they may rebound soon, causing further price declines.
- European indices closed the session in green. Both DAX and CAC40 gained slightly, 0.1%. The LVMH earnings report published after European session close came in better than expected
- Turkey's central bank raised rates to 45% as expected. The lira lost heavily after news that the CBRT considers the current level restrictive enough
- Norges Bank kept rates unchanged at 4.5, in line with expectations.
- Germany's Ifo index fell today to 85.2 for January against a forecast of 86.6, showing a further weak outlook for the German economy in the near term
- WTI crude oil is approaching $77 per barrel amid continued uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East. Prices are also positively impacted by the recent US production cut due to weather
- Gold bounces back minimally after yesterday's sell-off, but eventually falls back to around 2015 USD per ounce by the end of the session
- Bitcoin continues to struggle towards the USD 40000 level, although at this point it is marginally below this level
- Two hours before the close, the US100 cuts all its gains and loses 0.06%, while the US500 gains 0.1%
- Putin is said to signal to the US that he's open to talks on Ukraine, as Moscow floats ideas on Ukraine security & territory - anonymous sources of two people close to the Kremlin
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen told that The Federal Reserve is likely ‘delighted’ with inflation close to 2% target and strong labor market. Yellen also signalled that she doesn't see any meaningful spillovers to the US economy from the Middle East conflict
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