Wall Street and European markets lost dynamically at the end of the week due to better labor market data, which supports the Fed's actions regarding monetary tightening. Today's report reduces the chances of a so-called pivot by the Federal Reserve, at least for now. Also of note was a warning from AMD (AMD.US), which slashed earnings forecasts as a result of weak demand and logistical problems.
NFP data:
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Employment growth for September: 263k against expectations of 255k and the previous reading of 315k.
In the private sector, an increase of 288k, so we have a decline in government employment. On the other hand, employment in the industrial sector rose by 22k with an upwardly revised previous reading of 27k. Here is the increase despite negative expectations, with the ISM industrial sub-index very weak.
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Wages: 5.0% YoY with expectations of 5.0% YoY and the previous reading of 5.2% YoY
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Unemployment rate: 3.5% with an expectation of 3.7% and the same previous level
Wages - slightly disinflationary here, but in a very moderate way. Unemployment rate back to 3.5%. The Fed would like to see the unemployment rate rise above 4.0%. However, it is worth mentioning that part of the drop in the unemployment rate is a drop in the participation rate to 62.3% from 62.4%. This shows that the Fed will not be thinking about any Pivot at all, at least for now.
Next week marks the start of the publication of the financial results of U.S. banks, which analysts expect to show worse results.
In the currency market, the Canadian dollar and the US dollar are leading today, benefiting from good labor market data in both countries.
In the commodities market today, we mainly see sizable rallies in oil prices, which are benefiting from OPEC+ production cuts. WTI crude rallied above $92 a barrel on Friday as markets digested OPEC+ cutting production by 2mb/d, the biggest such cut since the pandemic in 2020, and Russia saying that the oil price cap could lead to a temporary slide in its production. Precious metals are replicating the sentiment of traditional markets and posting losses. Gold is struggling to hold support at $1,700.
Although declines are also affecting the crypto market, here the scale of the sell-off is noticeably smaller. BTC is currently losing 2.3%, and ETH is losing 1.93%.
The OIL.WTI market crossed a key resistance at $88.40. This level resulted from the upper limit of the 1:1 system, and the average EMA100. According to the Overbalance methodology, this opens the way for a larger upward movement. Source: xStation5
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Morning wrap (20.10.2025)
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