💯Daily Summary - Wall Street Close to Records Ahead of Long Weekend

📈 Global Markets & Exchanges

• US stock indices are rising significantly ahead of the long weekend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting new historic highs: the US30 contract is trading above 50,800 points after breaking through the psychological barrier of 50,000 points the previous day.

• The US500 contract is also nearing its record highs, sitting above the 7,500 level and marking its 8th consecutive week of gains, the longest such winning streak since 2023.

• Wall Street optimism is accompanied by a drop in the VIX volatility index to levels not seen since early February. The excellent sentiment is directly linked to falling oil prices following recent remarks by Donald Trump and signals from Iran indicating an advanced stage of peace negotiations.

• The markets are experiencing a narrow rally driven by artificial intelligence, with UBS warning against its extreme concentration—since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran in early March, a basket of AI-related stocks (e.g., the Anthropic ecosystem) has surged by 56%, while the broader market (S&P 500 Equal Weighted) moves sideways.

• Capital inflows are supporting corporate liquidity—the value of stock buybacks and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the US has surpassed a record $1 trillion in 2026.

📱 Companies

• IBM (+2.2%) and GlobalFoundries (+5.5%) shares are rising in response to the US government's decision to back the development of domestic quantum infrastructure with $2 billion.

• Leading the gains following earnings reports or guidance updates are: IMAX (+15% amid rumors of a potential company sale), Workday (+8.1%), Zoom (+8%), Ross Stores (+5.2%), and Take-Two (+4.6%), which officially announced the release of Grand Theft Auto VI for November 19.

• Chinese tech entities are under heavy selling pressure, including BABA (-3.9%) and TCOM (-6.1%), reacting to announcements of new regulatory sanctions, alongside biotech firm Denali Therapeutics (-3.1%) following failed clinical trials for a Parkinson's disease drug.

📊 Macroeconomics

• The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index plummeted drastically to 44.8 points (against market expectations of 48.2 points), accompanied by a sharp rise in 1-year inflation expectations to 4.8% and 5-year expectations to 3.9%.

• The German Ifo index delivered a positive surprise, rising to 84.9 points (expectations were for a drop to 84.2 from 84.4), sharply contrasting with weak PMI readings—the expectations sub-index rose to 83.8, while the current assessment reached 86.1.

• UK retail sales data came in significantly worse than forecast—year-on-year growth ground to a halt at 0% (expected 1.3% YoY vs 1.7% YoY previously), while on a month-on-month basis, a decline of -1.3% MoM was recorded (against a forecast of -0.6% MoM and a prior reading of +1.7%).

• The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted that nuclear issues are not being discussed at the current stage of talks, although other sources suggest that the potential transfer of enriched uranium to third-party countries is set to be a key condition for lifting sanctions imposed on Tehran.

🏦 Monetary Policy & The Federal Reserve (Fed)

• President Donald Trump officially swore in Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair, shaping the outline of the new Trump-Warsh Doctrine: the central bank is abandoning forward guidance in favor of greater unpredictability and flexibility; the view that a strong economy automatically generates inflation has been rejected (prioritizing supply stimulation and innovation), and the strategy shifts toward aggressive GDP growth to "grow out of debt" without sharp rate hikes. Trump declared Warsh's full independence, adding however that the new chief understands the need to stimulate a growing economy.

• Fed board members are exhibiting a hawkish pivot, led by Christopher Waller, whose speech strengthened the dollar—Waller called discussions of swift rate cuts "crazy" and announced the Fed's shift to a neutral-to-hawkish stance, where sticky inflation and high consumer expectations call the shots. He proposed further shrinking the balance sheet (QT by an additional $300–$500 billion) and announced an official surrender regarding a return to the pre-2008 small balance sheet, warning that dipping below the psychological $6 trillion mark risks paralyzing the interbank market.

🛢️ Commodities

• WTI crude oil prices are dropping sharply by over 2%, falling to the $95 level, while Brent crude after rolling is priced below the $100 threshold.

• Gold prices are down 0.5% today, hovering just above the $4,500 per ounce level, unable to price in cheaper crude oil due to the headwinds of a stronger US dollar.

💱 Currencies

• The US dollar is showing clear strengthening, pushing the main EURUSD currency pair down toward the 1.16 level, driving today's losses and pressure in the precious metals market.