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Wall Street indices turned negative after the Wall Street Journal published a report on plans to tighten U.S. export regulations for semiconductor equipment destined for South Korean and Taiwanese factories in China (S&P 500: -0.2%, DJIA: -0.15%, Nasdaq: -0.8%, Russell 2000: -0.25%).
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The main driver of the early gains was dovish commentary from the Fed’s Waller, who unexpectedly hinted that the Fed could consider rate cuts as early as July. However, Barkin later offered a more cautious tone, stating that he could not currently "discount" inflation risks stemming from tariffs.
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Volatility in the U.S. equity market is being fueled by so-called "Triple Witching" day — the expiration of options contracts worth a total of $6.5 trillion.
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Reuters cited Iranian sources suggesting that Tehran may be open to certain concessions in its nuclear energy and uranium enrichment program. Markets initially reacted positively to this news.
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U.S. economic data were mixed. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.1% m/m as expected (after a -1.4% drop in April), while the Philly Fed index came in at -4, missing expectations for a rebound to -1.5 (previously -4).
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In Europe, indices ended the week in the green. Germany’s DAX led gains with a +1.3% rise, France’s CAC40 added nearly 0.5%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 edged down by a modest 0.2%.
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Eurozone consumer sentiment disappointed, falling to -15.3 from -15.2 previously, below expectations of -14.9. UK retail sales surprised to the downside with sharp declines in both core and headline readings; the latter dropped -2.7% m/m versus forecasts of -0.5%, after a 1.2% rise previously.
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Oil prices fell more than 2.5% to $76 per barrel, while natural gas (NATGAS) dropped over 5%, sliding from $4.14/MMBtu to $3.83/MMBtu as investors took profits following weather-driven gains earlier in the week.
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On the forex market: the dollar posted its best weekly performance since February, driven by safe-haven flows amid rising Middle East tensions. However, today’s Iranian statements triggered a sharp dollar correction (USDIDX: -0.3%).
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The euro remains the strongest G10 currency today, posting solid gains against the dollar (EURUSD: +0.4% to 1.153). The biggest losers are the Antipodean currencies (AUDUSD: -0.4%; NZDUSD: -0.3%), while the British pound and Swiss franc trade flat.
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In crypto market, prices are falling. Bitcoin has retreated to $102,000, while Ethereum is down over 3.5%.
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