Daily summary: Weak US PKB but bulls come back on Wall Street

8:59 pm 27 April 2023

  • Q1 USGDP at an annualized rate in the U.S. comes out at just 1.1% against an expectation of 2.0%, and against the previous level of 2.6%;
  • Q1 saw a sizable negative contribution from inventories and a limited contribution from exports. The largest positive contribution came from government consumption;
  • The GDP report, among with growth dissapointment, showed pro-inflationary factors in the form of higher Core PCE at 4.9% q/q against the previous level of 4.4% q/q and a higher GDP deflator at 4.0%;
  • Data negative from an equity market perspective, but may be more positive for USD. EURUSD found itself in the vicinity of 1.10. Wall Street contracts reacted only temporarily negatively, but the most important now is the BigTech earnings season which is quite strong for now;
  • Lower claims data suggest that labour market is still strong. US jobless claims came below analysts's expectations with 230k reading vs expected 248k and 245k previosly. 
  • There is still a lot of uncertainty on Wall Street related to First Republic Bank but the bank shares gain more than 10% with stronger performance of big US banks, JP Morgan and Bank of America.
  • On the back of strong earnings from technology companies, the US100 gains 1.6%, while the US500 gains 1.0%. Shares are gaining ahead of the results in the face of good cloud-related guidance after Alphabet and Microsoft's results. Meta Platforms lead todays rally;
  • Meta shows EPS of $2.2 ($2.03 was expected), and revenues 1 billion higher than expectations at $28.65 billion, with  higher number of daily active users at 2.04 billion against expectations of 2.01 billion. The company is showing a significant decrease in costs due to layoffs and plans for revenue growth. Shares gained nearly 15% during the session. Another big tech - Amazon will report results today after the session. The shares are up 5% now
  • Growth in Europe was mixed today. The DAX was marginally above the bar in the face of mixed results from Deutsche Bank. On the banks' side, Barclays performed well after earnings;
  • Oil fell below $74 on WTI and $80 on Brent yesterday. It is rebounding slightly today, even despite the strength of the US dollar and uncertainty about the US economy. Gold, on the other hand, found itself near $1980 mainly due to the dollar and rising yields
  • As risk apetit arise again, Bitcoin came back above 29,000 USD despite yesterday's night 'flash crash' event. Ethereum also came back above 1900 USD with stronger altcoins gains; 
  • Tomorrow at 5 am the BoJ decision will be published. Theoretically, it should not change the layout of the market, but earlier there was speculation about possible changes in the BoJ. Macroeconomic forecasts will also be published, which should set the tone for USDJPY for tomorrow's session

US100 bounced above SMA200 support (red line) and SMA100 zone at 13100 pt. The bulls may have the appetite to attack highs at 13,350 zone. Source: xStation5

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