Today, the market is being driven by three key issues: Big Tech’s results, tensions surrounding Iran and the ECB’s decision.
What drives the market?
-
Big Tech’s spending is spooking investors – Alphabet and Tesla reported solid revenues, but the market punished both companies for their massive capital expenditure (Alphabet up to $205 billion by 2026, Tesla +142% year-on-year), triggering a fall in their share prices. In the coming days, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple will report their results – the market will be looking just as closely at their AI investment plans as at their profits themselves.
-
Oil prices rise on Trump’s threats against Iran – the US president has announced a strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure (Pickaxe Mountain), and there has also been another attack on a tanker off the coast of Saudi Arabia. Goldman Sachs warns that Brent could exceed $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist.
-
The ECB is due to announce its interest rate decision at 14:15 – the market expects rates to remain unchanged (refinancing rate 2.40%, deposit rate 2.25%), but the “extremely volatile” situation surrounding the war in Iran could influence the tone of the press conference at 14:45.
-
UniCredit beats forecasts – €2.9 billion net profit in Q2, with CEO Andrea Orcel describing progress on the Commerzbank deal as "the best possible".
Today’s macroeconomic calendar
The Australian labour market delivered a positive surprise – employment rose by 76,300 against a forecast of 15,100, which is a hawkish signal for the RBA. The rest of the day in the US and Canada will focus on retail sales and labour market data, but it is the ECB and the geopolitical situation surrounding Iran that will remain the main drivers of volatility in the oil market and share indices.
Before the European trading session, Nestlé, UniCredit, TotalEnergies, Thermo Fisher, RTX and Lockheed Martin are due to report their results today, whilst SAP and Intel are due to report after the US trading session.
Oil rises over 3% 🛢️
Morning Wrap: A New Threat of Conflict in the Middle East 🚨 (23.07.2026)
Daily Summary: Wall Street Stabilizes Despite Higher Oil Prices
Cocoa loses 5% amid rising inventories on ICE
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
