Economic calendar: PMI, ISM and ADP overshadowed by government shutdown (01.10.2025)

October begins with a political conundrum in the US. Most federal agencies have suspended their operations after the Senate voted against the Democrats’ budget bill, while the Republicans’ proposal stalled in Congress. As a result, the US government is left without a budget, and no consensus is in sight as both parties continue to blame each other for the state’s paralysis.

The shutdown will primarily involve temporary and/or permanent layoffs of federal employees, but for markets, the key issue is the postponement of Friday’s NFP report, which, according to its declaration, the BLS will not publish during the shutdown. The lack of this crucial labor market data is expected not only to stress equity markets but also to complicate the Fed’s preparations for its next interest rate decision.

Adding to the political noise today are a series of important macroeconomic data releases on both sides of the Atlantic. In the Eurozone, preliminary inflation data will be published, which is expected to rise from 2% to 2.2% (soruce: Bloomberg), thus justifying the end of the ECB’s cycle.

We will also see further manufacturing PMI data, the ISM manufacturing report from the US, and a preview of NFP in the form of the ADP employment change report. Given the BLS shutdown, volatility around the ADP release may spike more than usual in case of surprises.

Alongside hard macro data, markets will also be watching speeches from central bankers (ECB, Bundesbank, BoC, BoE), the EIA report, and the OPEC meeting in the US – particularly important for oil market volatility.

Economic calendar for today:

07:00 AM BST, United Kingdom - Nationwide HPI for September:

• actual 2.2% YoY; forecast 1.8% YoY; previous 2.1% YoY;

08:00 BST, Poland – PMI report for September:

• Manufacturing PMI: actual: 48, forecast 46.40; previous 46.60;

08:15 BST, Spain – PMI report for September:

• Manufacturing PMI: forecast 53.8; previous 54.3;

08:30 BST, Eurozone – Speech by ECB’s Elderson

08:30 BST, Switzerland – PMI report for September:

• procure.ch PMI: forecast 47.9; previous 49.0;

08:50 BST, France – PMI report for September:

• Manufacturing PMI: forecast 48.1; previous 50.4;

08:55 BST, Eurozone – Speech by ECB’s de Guindos

08:55 BST, Germany – PMI report for September:

• Manufacturing PMI: forecast 48.5; previous 49.8;

09:00 BST, Eurozone – PMI report for September:

• Manufacturing PMI: forecast 49.5; previous 50.7;

10:00 BST, Germany – Speech by Bundesbank’s Mauderer

10:00 BST, Eurozone – Inflation data for September:

• Annual CPI: forecast 2.2% y/y; previous 2.0% y/y;

• Monthly CPI: previous 0.1% m/m;

• Annual HICP ex. energy and food: previous 2.3% y/y;

• Monthly HICP ex. energy and food: previous 0.3% m/m;

• Core CPI: forecast 2.3% y/y; previous 2.3% y/y;

• Core CPI: previous 0.3% m/m;

10:30 BST, Germany – Auction of 10-year German Bunds:

• previous 2.250%;

10:55 BST, United Kingdom – Speech by BoE MPC member Mann

11:00 BST, United States – OPEC meeting

12:00 BST, Germany – Speech by Bundesbank President Nagel

13:15 BST, United States – Labor market data for September:

• ADP nonfarm employment change: forecast 52K; previous 54K;

14:45 BST, United States – PMI report for September:

• Manufacturing PMI: forecast 52.0; previous 53.0;

15:00 BST, United States – ISM data for September:

• ISM Manufacturing Index: forecast 62.7; previous 63.7;

• ISM Manufacturing Index: forecast 49.0; previous 48.7;

• ISM New Orders Index: previous 51.4;

• ISM Employment Index: previous 43.8;

15:00 BST, United States – Inflation data for August:

• Construction spending: forecast -0.1% m/m; previous -0.1% m/m;

15:30 BST, United States – EIA report:

• Refinery crude runs (w/w): previous 0.052M;

• Crude oil imports: previous 1.596M;

• Cushing crude inventories: previous 0.177M;

• Distillates production: previous 0.029M;

• Weekly distillates stocks (EIA): previous -1.685M;

• Gasoline inventories: previous -1.081M;

• Heating oil inventories: previous -0.189M;

• Refinery utilization rates (w/w, EIA): previous -0.3%;

• Gasoline production: previous 0.300M;

• Crude oil inventories: forecast 1.500M; previous -0.607M;

18:00 BST, United States – GDP data:

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): forecast 3.9%; previous 3.9%;

19:05 BST, Canada – Speech by BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers