Please note: trading is very thin today. Markets are closed in the US (Memorial Day), the UK (Spring Bank Holiday) and parts of Europe (Germany, France, Switzerland – Pentecost). Euronext and Xetra will be open, but with thin order books, any headline from Tehran or Washington could trigger sharp movements.
🌍 What drives the market?
The main topic is US–Iran talks and the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, Trump first announced that the deal was “largely negotiated”, only to reverse his stance on Sunday – the naval blockade remains in place until the agreement is signed and ratified. Despite this, the market is buoyed by optimism: two LNG tankers have left the Strait of Hormuz, and a supertanker carrying Iraqi oil for China has left the Gulf after being held up for almost three months.
📈 Market open – risk-on
European futures are opening in risk-on mode: DE40 +1.65% (25,252 points), EU50 +1.60% (6,094 points). The Nikkei 225 hit a historic record today – breaking through 64,000 and 65,000 points in succession, closing at 65,263 points (+3.04%). Taiwan’s Taiex also reached an all-time high above 43,000 points (+2.91%). S&P 500 futures are up +0.7%, Nasdaq futures +1.2%.
🛢️ Oil – the biggest loser
OIL (Brent) is down -5.35% to $94.52/bbl, while WTI is down -5.75% to $90.65/bbl – the lowest levels in two weeks. This is a direct reaction to progress in the Iran talks. Gold is up +1.21% to $4,562/oz – driven by a weaker dollar, not the classic safe-haven effect. Silver is stronger, up +2.91%.
💱 Currencies
The dollar is under pressure: the USDIDX is down 0.30% to 98.93. EUR/USD is up to 1.1643, GBP/USD to 1.3486. The Chinese yuan at the PBOC fixing stands at 6.8318 – its strongest level since February 2023.
📋 Today’s macroeconomic data
none
🔑 What should you keep an eye on?
Any tweet or post from Trump, or any statement from Rubio regarding Iran, could trigger sharp movements in oil, the dollar and index futures. With low liquidity, the effect could be amplified. A full trading session with normal liquidity will not resume until Tuesday – by which time the market will also be facing the earnings season: on Wednesday Salesforce and PDD Holdings, on Thursday Royal Bank of Canada, Dell Technologies and Autodesk
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