- US CPI inflation data
- Indices in Europe open lower
Today's macroeconomic calendar essentially has one important event planned - the US CPI inflation. This will be sufficient to increase volatility in the main currency pairs and initiate movement in the indices. The CPI inflation is expected to rise to 3.6% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive increase month-on-month after a local inflation low of 3.0% year-on-year in June. Note that on a monthly basis, inflation is expected to soar by as much as 0.6%, which is quite a large increase compared to the average. Meanwhile, the core inflation is expected to fall from 4.7% last month to 4.3% in August.
Investors will be looking for clues in the report regarding the future policy of the Fed. The decision in September is practically known. However, after the expected pause in hikes, the open question remains for the November decision. Currently, the chances are more or less evenly distributed between another pause and a 25 basis point increase.
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1:30 PM BST, USA - inflation report for August:
- CPI headline annual: expected 3.6% y/y; previously 3.2% y/y
- CPI headline monthly: expected 0.6% m/m; previously 0.2% m/m
- Core CPI annual: expected 4.3% y/y; previously 4.7% y/y
- Core CPI monthly: expected 0.2% m/m; previously 0.2% m/m
3:30 PM BST, USA - weekly EIA inventory report:
- Crude oil stocks: expected -2.0 mn barrels; previously -6.31 mn barrels
- Gasoline stocks: expected -0.2 mn barrels; previously -2.67 mn barrels
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