- European indexes gain, followed by Wall Street benchmark contracts, with US100 gaining 0.3%
- Investors' attention focuses on US labour market data; US NFP report (1:30 PM GMT)
- German and French industrial production with surprisingly deep declines, far below forecasts
Sentiment on European exchanges is positive today, with benchmarks following in the footsteps of Wall Street, where contracts saw gains today. Investors took away, Wednesday's weak ISM services data as a dovish signal, giving conviction bordering on certainty regarding Fed policy easing, this fall. Equity market sentiment rose along with the bond market, with invariably upward fuel coming from the largest U.S. technology companies, whose strong gains were joined in recent days by Tesla. Today the stock market will get another reason for a big reaction, at 2:30 pm the US non-farm employment change (NFP) will be published. This will also be the most important publication on the actual state of the US labor market in June.
France's industrial production fell more than -2% vs. an expected decline of -0.5%; Germany's production took an even harder m/m hit, falling -2.6% m/m vs. an expected recovery of 0.1%. On a seasonally adjusted annual basis, the decline was 6.7% vs. -4.3% forecast and -3.86% in May. The data suggest that Europe is clearly struggling with weakness in the industrial sector. The GBPUSD pair had virtually no reaction to the result of the UK election, which was won by the Labor Party. It also won enough votes to gain a majority of government seats and form a government, which likely be headed by new Prime Minister, Keir Sturmer.
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Eurozone, 10:30 AM BST. Retail sales. Expected 0.2% y/y vs 0.% previously (0.2% m/m vs -0.5% previously)
USA, 2:30 pm, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). Expected 190k vs. 272k previously
- Change in private employment. Expected 160k vs. 222k previously
- Change in employment in the manufacturing sector. Expected 5k vs. 8k previously
- Unemployment rate. Expected 4% vs. 4% previously
- Average earnings. Expected 3.9% y/y growth vs. 4.1% previously (0.3% m/m growth vs. 0.4% previously)
Canada,1:30 PM GMT, Employment change. Expected 25k vs. 26.7k previously
- Unemployment rate: 6.3% expected vs. 6.2% previous
Central bankers' speeches
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6:15 PM BST - speech by Christine Lagarde, ECB president
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