Gold has climbed more than 5% since the beginning of September, boosted by a weaker dollar.
Kecuali koreksi kecil pada 4 September, emas saat ini mencatat reli 10 sesi berturut-turut — sebuah rekor langka di pasar. Logam mulia ini sudah naik lebih dari 5% bulan ini, dengan target utama berikutnya di $4.000, hanya sekitar 10% di atas level saat ini. Reli emas didorong oleh pelemahan dolar AS yang berkelanjutan dan meningkatnya ketidakpastian seputar ekonomi AS.
Data tenaga kerja AS Jumat lalu menunjukkan pertumbuhan lapangan kerja yang sangat rendah, hanya +22 ribu, serta revisi turun pada data Juni. Tingkat pengangguran naik ke 4,3% sesuai ekspektasi, sementara pertumbuhan upah melambat. Kombinasi data ini praktis menjamin pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed dan membuka jalan menuju siklus pelonggaran baru. Pasar kini memperhitungkan hampir tiga kali pemangkasan suku bunga tahun ini — masing-masing pada sisa rapat Fed 2025. Selain itu, pasar juga mendiskon total sekitar 150 basis poin pemangkasan tambahan sebelum siklus pelonggaran berakhir, yang berarti ada potensi tiga kali pemangkasan lagi tahun depan di luar ekspektasi saat ini.
Start investing today or test a free demo
Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile app
Pasar benar-benar menghargai skenario pemangkasan agresif oleh The Fed dalam beberapa bulan mendatang. Sumber: Bloomberg Finance LP
Hari ini, harga emas naik hampir 1%, menembus level $3.600 per ons. Resistensi kunci berikutnya berada di sekitar $3.644 per ons, yang bertepatan dengan retracement 138,2%.Sumber: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
