Remarks from Federal Reserve Members
Schmid (Fed):
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“When making decisions on monetary policy, the Fed must carefully assess how much weight to give to soft data.”
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“In the coming years, the Fed must seriously consider how and when to use its balance sheet.”
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“Hopefully, the Fed is approaching a more stabilized, normalized yield curve.”
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“Nothing good happens when interest rates reach the zero lower bound. Cutting rates back to zero would likely mean we’re facing a crisis.”
Musalem (Fed):
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“The world after the pandemic is fundamentally different from what it was before. There’s at most a one-in-five chance that the Fed’s policy rate will approach zero again.”
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“GDP is close to its potential, the labor market is near full employment, and inflation remains above target.”
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“We can already see the footprint of AI investments reflected in GDP data.”
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“Business leaders are trying to figure out how to manage uncertainty around supply chains, inventories, and inflation.”
Goolsbee (Fed):
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“Interest rate cuts are still possible within a 10–16 month horizon.”
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“Despite volatility, I feel the economy’s fundamentals remain strong; if it weren’t for tariffs and uncertainty, rates could eventually come down.”
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“Interest rates are still within historical ranges. If a crisis over U.S. fiscal stability emerged, rates could move higher.”
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“Concerns about financial stability are currently overblown.”
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“If long-term yields are rising, that can directly impact real economic activity and would be factored into the Fed’s analysis.”
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“There is concern that the data are lagging, and upcoming reports may reveal more serious consequences from actions already taken.”
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“If tariffs result in a stagflationary effect, that would be the central bank’s worst-case scenario.”
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“In the short term, the Fed needs to wait for the dust to settle—the bar for taking action is higher until then.”
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“Firms are anxious that continued tariff announcements could disrupt supply chains and create upward pressure on prices.”
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“Tariffs at the 50% level would pose a serious threat to supply chains.”
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“A 50% tariff on the EU would be an entirely different magnitude than current conditions.”
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“Businesses are telling the Fed they want policy consistency before making major decisions – CNBC.”
EURUSD (H1 Timeframe)
The EURUSD pair has halted its rise at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward wave from the second half of April.
Source: xStation5
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