- The situation surrounding the Islamic Republic of Iran remains serious and unstable. Increased military activity by the United States and its allies indicates a possible scenario of significant escalation in the region. The market appears to be underpricing the risk of escalation.
- In recent days, it has been formally confirmed that delegations from Iran and the United States are continuing diplomatic talks in Oman, including discussions regarding the nuclear program. Iran maintains its uranium enrichment policy, which is unacceptable to the United States. Despite ongoing negotiations, the U.S. is accelerating the redeployment of units to the Strait of Hormuz region, clearly signalling that the negotiations may be merely a delaying tactic. According to the Associated Press, the American delegation left the negotiation venue without any constructive agreements. The ultimate objective of the United States and the precise method of implementation remain unknown.
- Simultaneously, confirmed executions of an unspecified number of detained protesters are taking place, despite explicit warnings from Donald Trump to refrain from such repression.
- Beyond U.S. forces, further deployments by European states have been observed in recent days. This time, the movements concern the territory of Cyprus, where Royal Air Force assets have appeared. These bases maintain a permanent presence of combat fighter aircraft, transport aircraft, and aerial refuelling tankers, which have been used in regional operations in the past. Historically, RAF Akrotiri has served as a staging point for flights over the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean during previous escalations.
- Similar transport and combat operations from Cyprus have occurred in the context of earlier conflicts. However, further intensification of these activities may be interpreted as a sign of European concern about a potential expansion of the conflict beyond the traditional Middle Eastern theatre.
- According to available sources, elements of the 160th SOAR, known as the “Night Stalkers” — the same aviation unit responsible for the capture operation of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela — have been deployed to Europe.
- Open-source information indicates a significant surge in U.S. transport flights toward the Middle East. Since the beginning of the year, more than 120 transport flights have already been conducted. These figures suggest that a nearly inevitable strike on Iran may not be limited to precision operations, but could instead take the form of strategic bombing aimed at infrastructure collapse, similar to the intervention in Serbia in 1999 or the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
- In such a scenario, the regime may be provoked into a fight for survival, employing all available means, primarily ballistic missiles, drones, and surviving cells of terrorist organizations in the region and beyond.
Kamil Szczepański
Junior Financial Markets Analyst, XTB
India: New battleground of the trade war?
Another US Gov. Shutdown: What can it mean this time?
Mercosur: Farmers’ fears are exaggerated, industry triumphs - facts vs. myths
BoJ maintains rates despite hawkish shift in outlook. What next for the USDJPY?
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
