JPY weakens after Ueda’s press conference; BOJ waits for more data 📃🔎

11:22 am 31 July 2025

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) unanimously voted to keep the short-term interest rate at 0.5 %, as expected, and sharply raised its inflation forecasts. In its July Outlook Report the Bank projects that core CPI inflation will reach 2.7 % in fiscal 2025 (previously 2.2 %), with similar upward revisions for 2026 and 2027. The so-called core-core CPI (excluding food and energy) was also revised up to 2.8 % for 2025. The BOJ reiterated that real interest rates remain exceptionally low and that it will continue raising rates if the economy and inflation evolve in line with its projections. At the same time the Bank pointed to growth risks, particularly from trade-policy uncertainty and weak exports. After the decision and minutes were released the yen initially strengthened, but the move was erased during Governor Ueda’s press conference.

BOJ leaves interest rates unchanged. Source: xStation 5

  • Interest rates: Unchanged at 0.5 %; unanimous decision (9–0)
  • Inflation forecasts revised up:
    • Core CPI (FY 2025): +2.7 % (previously +2.2 %)
    • Core-core CPI (FY 2025): +2.8 % (previously +2.3 %)
  • Stance: BOJ will raise rates if the economy and inflation meet expectations
  • Risks:
    • Inflation risks now “roughly balanced”
    • Economic risks still skewed to the downside
  • Trade policy: The US-Japan deal reduces uncertainty

Headline and core inflation in Japan versus average earnings, y/y data. Source: xStation 5

Despite nominal consumption growth, retail sales have been flat for twenty years once inflation is stripped out. Source: xStation 5

At the press conference Governor Ueda highlighted recent trade progress, especially the US-Japan agreement, calling it “a big step forward” that reduces uncertainty about the economic outlook. He said Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, though pockets of weakness remain, and stressed that monetary policy will stay data-dependent with no preset path. Ueda assured that the BOJ will decide meeting by meeting, watching risks and core inflation, which he said is gradually rising. He added that while inflation risks have increased—particularly after the trade deal, the Bank must stay alert to global trade tensions and their impact on sentiment, wages and pricing behaviour.

Ueda offered no specific timetable for further hikes but said the Bank is no longer in a holding phase of policy normalisation. He noted that the probability of hitting the inflation forecasts “has risen somewhat” and downplayed fears that the BOJ is behind the curve. He also mentioned the need to monitor second-round effects from food prices and to remain cautious given prolonged trade uncertainty. Overall, his remarks suggested the BOJ is ready to resume tightening if the inflation outlook materialises and geopolitical uncertainty improves. For now, the BOJ remains in wait-and-see mode. In reaction, the yen resumed weakening against the U.S. dollar. Ueda added that current yen levels are not far from the Bank’s projections.

Source: xStation 5

The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.

Share:
Back

Join over 1 600 000 XTB Group Clients from around the world.