Morning Wrap (June 25, 2025)

8:40 am 25 June 2025

  • Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region rose today following a strong impulse from Wall Street. However, the scale of the gains was not excessive. The Nikkei is currently up 0.32%, the Hang Seng 0.81%, and the S&P/ASX 200 close to 0.15%.
  • Just before the opening of the cash session in Europe, stock index futures are up slightly, gold and silver are up about 0.15%, NATGAS is up 4% (contract rollover), and crude oil is up 0.22%.
  • During trading hours in the Asia-Pacific region, there was relatively little geopolitical news, with no hostile incidents reported between Israel and Iran.
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on the first day of congressional hearings that Fed bankers expect tariffs to have a significant impact on inflation in June, July, and August. He added that if this impact does not occur by then, it could lead to an earlier interest rate cut.
  • Australia's CPI (May 2025) was 2.1% y/y (against expectations of 2.3%).
  • According to the Bank of Japan's June meeting, the bank is currently “divided” on the outlook for interest rates amid concerns about tariffs and rising inflation.
  • Japan's PPI index for services +3.3% y/y (forecast +3.1%, previously +3.1%) – higher than expected.
  • We are not currently seeing excessive volatility in the FX market, with the exception of the New Zealand dollar, which is gaining value dynamically this morning. Slightly larger declines are visible in the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar. 
  • The macro calendar for today's session is relatively empty. Investors will pay attention to GDP data from Spain, the CNB's decision on interest rates, and Powell's comments during the second day of hearings. For the oil market, the most important data may be the change in US oil inventories.

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