- Wall Street is set to open Monday’s session at regular hours following the Good Friday market closure. Sentiment has improved on reports suggesting a potential de-escalation of the Middle East conflict and ongoing US–Iran negotiations. Investors have cautiously rotated back into equities, supporting gains in selected markets, although the move remains limited in scope. Beyond geopolitical developments, markets will focus on US ISM data due at 16:00 CET.
- According to media reports, the United States, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire. Markets would likely interpret such a scenario as an initial step toward a broader de-escalation. Over the weekend, Donald Trump set a deadline of 1:00 GMT Tuesday 7 April, for Iran to decide on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, warning of “total destruction” otherwise.
- Additional support for sentiment comes from increased vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about immediate disruptions to global oil and energy supply. However, escalation risks remain elevated. Iran has threatened not only retaliation against US allies in the event of an attack but also the potential closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait near the Gulf of Aden. Combined with Hormuz, these routes account for roughly 25% of global oil shipments.
- S&P 500 futures have recovered earlier losses and are up حوالي 0.3%, indicating that markets are beginning to price in a partial de-escalation scenario. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4%, with a relatively balanced distribution of advancers and decliners. Technology stocks outperformed, suggesting a selective return of capital into higher-beta assets.
- At the same time, the political backdrop remains highly fragile. Donald Trump has intensified his rhetoric toward Iran, threatening strikes on civilian infrastructure if no agreement is reached. He also announced a press conference and reiterated a specific deadline, without providing operational details.
- In commodities, earlier gains in crude oil have been fully reversed, suggesting that investors are scaling back the geopolitical risk premium, at least in the near term. Gold declined by around 0.6% to approximately $4,650 per ounce. Since the conflict began in late February, bullion has fallen by roughly 12%.
- The decline in gold can be linked to shifting monetary policy expectations. Rising energy costs have reinforced inflation concerns, reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, which typically support non-yielding assets such as gold.
US100 (D1)
Source: xStation5
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