Oil prices are down almost 3% today after Donald Trump reportedly called off a strike on Iran at the last minute and suggested the US may hold back from launching an attack. Brent crude (OIL) is sliding nearly 3% and has fallen below $64 per barrel, giving back part of the recent rebound.
- The move reflects a drop in geopolitical risk: Trump said he had received information indicating that the killing of protesters in Iran would stop, reducing the likelihood of a rapid military escalation.
- Earlier, the market had been positioning for escalation. There were signs that US strikes could be imminent, and Iran temporarily closed its airspace. Investors have now started to unwind the risk premium embedded in oil prices. Recent gains in crude had been driven mainly by Iran-related tensions, unrest in Venezuela, and disruptions to Kazakhstan’s exports via the Black Sea (drones, maintenance, and adverse weather).
- Volatility has also been amplified by financial flows in the options market: heavy bullish options activity has intensified price swings in both directions. Another bearish factor came from the US: EIA data showed crude inventories rising more than expected, further weighing on sentiment. The market is also factoring in Venezuelan supply dynamics and growing US fuel inventories, which limit upside potential.
OIL (H1)
The decline in oil prices is currently finding support at the 200-period EMA on the hourly chart, around $63.5 per barrel. Selling volume has dominated since the overnight hours. It’s also worth noting that a strike scenario is still possible—although as recently as yesterday, the market had been treating it as almost “inevitable.”
Source: xStation5
📉EURUSD loses 0.3%
Divorce of Europe and the USA over Greenland
US Open: Optimism drives indices on Wall Street📈BlackRock surges after earnings
JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs: Giants after earnings
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
