US OPEN: Nasdaq rebounds! Microsoft and Lam Research earnings revive AI trade!

Global financial markets face heightened volatility as investors navigate a dense calendar of economic data and diverging Big Tech earnings. US index futures edged higher, driven by contrasting hyperscaler performance. Nasdaq 100 futures lead the rally (US100: +3.3%), followed by S&P 500 (US500: +1.4%), Russell 2000 (US2000: +1.2%) and DJIA (US30: +0.6%).

Microsoft surged on strong Azure growth and restrained capital expenditure, while Meta tumbled over weak guidance and ballooning AI costs. With earnings from Apple and Amazon on deck, market sentiment remains cautious amid Treasury yield swings and persistent scrutiny over AI returns.

Nasdaq is led by surging semiconductor and tech hardware stocks, with Lam Research (+19.2%), Sandisk (+16.4%), and Applied Materials (+10.2%) posting massive gains alongside Microsoft (+14.7%). On the downside, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals plunged 23.4%, while Meta Platforms dropped 9.5%, leading losses among software and communications names including Workday (-7.3%) and Adobe (-5.0%).

Source: XTB Research

Source: XTB Research

US Macro: GDP slows down 

In the second quarter of 2026, the US economy grew at a slower pace than expected, expanding by 1.5% on an annualised basis, as the Iran war weighed on confidence in the world’s largest economy. According to the BEA report, the slowdown was driven mainly by a decline in exports and government spending, as well as weaker business investment. Personal consumption also fell short of expectations, with US consumers continuing to feel the pressure from elevated fuel prices. The Core PCE numbers, Fed's preferred inflation measure, slightly missed the expectations (the monthly reading came in lower than expected, pointing to a milder, short-term inflationary pressure).

Source: XTB Research, Macrobond
 

Technical Analysis: US100 (Nasdaq 100 Futures)

Nasdaq 100 futures (US100) are attempting a recovery after a sharp sell-off pushed prices below the critical 100-day EMA (~28,275) and the 28,410 horizontal support (0.0% Fibonacci level). The index found temporary demand near 27,600, while the RSI at 41.2 reflects lingering bearish pressure despite early signs of stabilization.

For bulls, reclaiming the 28,275–28,410 resistance zone is essential to open the door toward the 23.6% Fibo level (28,966) and the 30-day EMA (~29,036). Conversely, a failure to break back above the 100-day EMA leaves US100 vulnerable to renewed selling toward 27,600 and deeper support around 26,860.

Source: xStation5

Company News

• Microsoft (MSFT): Shares jumped 14% after Q4 revenue ($90.01B vs $87.72B est) and EPS ($4.81 vs $4.25 est) beat expectations. Azure cloud growth accelerated to 43% YoY, surpassing $100B in annual revenue. Investors were further reassured as full-year capex guidance was lowered to ~$175B from $190B due to accounting adjustments.

• Meta Platforms (META): Shares tumbled 9% following a soft Q3 revenue outlook ($61B–$64B) and an increased low-end for FY capex guidance ($130B–$145B). Q2 revenue grew 28% YoY to $60.8B, but EPS fell to $6.18, weighed down by $2.4B in legal charges and $1.18B in severance costs.

• Lam Research (LRCX): Shares surged 20% after Q4 results beat expectations, with revenue climbing 30% YoY to $6.72 billion (vs. $6.68B est) and adjusted EPS reaching $1.82 (vs. $1.70 est). Strong customer support revenue (+43% YoY) helped bolster margins. Looking ahead, Q1 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.00–$2.30 comfortably cleared Wall Street estimates of $1.84.

• Starbucks (SBUX): Shares are up 1.5% after raising full-year adjusted EPS guidance ($2.55–$2.65 vs $2.39 est). Q3 US same-store sales jumped 7.9%, driving total revenue to $9.3B (vs $9.16B est), supported by menu innovations and loyalty program tweaks.

• Baxter International (BAX): Shares surged nearly 17% following strong Q2 results (adjusted EPS $0.56 vs $0.37 est; revenue $2.96B vs $2.8B est). Management raised its full-year EPS outlook to $1.95–$2.15, boosted by operational execution and a tariff refund.

• Crocs (CROX): Shares plunged 12% on a weak Q3 adjusted EPS forecast ($3.20–$3.30 vs $3.53 est), despite Q2 results beating estimates with revenue at $1.18B. Management raised full-year EPS guidance ($13.70–$14.00) and expanded its share buyback program to ~$2B.

• Robinhood Markets (HOOD): Shares are down 1.8% despite Q2 revenue ($1.31B) and EPS ($0.62 vs $0.44 est) beating expectations. Strong options, equities, and prediction market trading offset a 38% YoY drop in crypto revenue, while full-year operating expense guidance was lowered.