The final session of the second quarter of 2026 brings calm and consolidation to the New York floor. Futures contracts for major American indices are moving close to the closing of the first session this week. Despite the fact that recently we have been talking more about sell-offs, at the same time we are ending one of the better quarters in recent years.

Quarterly, we have a return of about 25%, while since the beginning of this year it is an increase of 18%. Definitely the semiconductor, energy, and hardware sectors performed best. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

Key data from the American economy was published today: the consumer confidence index and the JOLTS report. The first one, illustrating the level of Americans' optimism regarding the economy and their personal finances, rose in June to 91.2 points, which however turned out to be a worse result than market forecasts assuming 94.4 points. In turn, the JOLTS report, which measures labor market liquidity based on the number of job openings and layoffs, strongly surprised to the upside: in May, the number of vacancies rose to 7.594 million with expectations at 7.296 million, which confirms the very strong condition of the local employment sector.

Aside from the data, it is worth paying attention to the strengthening US dollar, especially against the Japanese yen, which reached its greatest weakness since 1986. The USDJPY pair reached the level of 162.4.

Spectacular quarter finish and rotation in Russell indices

American stock markets are preparing to close an exceptionally successful first half of the year, mainly through a spectacular rebound in the second quarter. The main broad market index, the S&P 500, has risen by about 14% since the beginning of April, marking the best quarterly performance in six years. Nasdaq 100 rose by over 25% and this was also the best result since Q2 2020. Not counting the pandemic rebound, it was the best quarterly result since 2001.

Nasdaq 100 records a phenomenal rebound in Q2 2026. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

The main fuel for growth remains invariably the investment boom around artificial intelligence (AI). At the same time, we are constantly observing weakness from software companies. According to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates, just 44 companies directly linked to AI technology are expected to account for nearly 60% of the entire profit growth of the S&P 500 index in the calendar year 2026, growing at a rate of over 40%, nearly three times faster than the rest of the market.

Since the beginning of this year, hardware companies have performed great, namely Sandisk, Micron, Western Digital, Intel, Seagate, Marvell, Arm, Applied Materials, AMD or Lam Research. All these companies deal to some extent with semiconductors and chips. On the other hand, we have companies like Workday, Adobe or Thomson Reuters, which are losing out on the AI revolution. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

Today's session begins rather calmly, close to Monday's closing levels:

• US500, i.e. contracts for S&P 500 gain 0.15% in the first 20 minutes of trading
• US100, i.e. contracts for Nasdaq 100 grow by as much as 0.75%
• US30 loses approx. 0.07%, while US2000 loses 0.15%.

Technical Analysis: US100

The cash tech index Nasdaq 100 begins today's session with a gain of over 25%, outperforming the quarterly average since the beginning of the 80s at 4.25%. From a technical analysis perspective, such a powerful, vertical green candle in the quarterly interval (the highest reading since the post-pandemic rebound and the dot-com era) clearly indicates a strong overbought market in the medium and long term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for many related components is approaching extreme levels. Nevertheless, as long as the fundamental profit momentum of the AI revolution leaders keeps pace with stock valuations, the overarching trend remains strongly upward, and local market cool-downs (such as Bitcoin's pullback or Microsoft's consolidation) are at this stage treated by capital as opportunities to accumulate shares.

US100 continues yesterday's rebound and breaks above 30,000 points. Breaking 30,300 points, associated with the 23.6 retracement of the last upward impulse, may be a prelude to a rise to historic peaks, which are slightly below 31,000 points.

Key information from the corporate front

• Big Tech Sector (Magnificent Seven): Mixed moods are observed among megacap leaders at the opening of the session. Nvidia (NVDA) is up 1.4%, Alphabet (GOOGL) loses 0.6%, although at the very beginning of the session it was 0.5% up, and Microsoft (MSFT) gains 0.9%, although the latter is heading towards closing its worst month since December 2000.
• Tesla (TSLA) lost as much as 1.5% at the opening, but currently the decline has been largely erased. Amazon (AMZN) pulls back by 0.4%.
• Sentiment around the semiconductor sector is cooled by reports from Taiwan, where government agencies searched the offices of Super Micro Computer in connection with an investigation into the alleged smuggling of Nvidia chips to China.
• AeroVironment (AVAV): Shares of the drone and defense systems manufacturer shot up by over 20% (peaking at 36%). The company reported fourth fiscal quarter results that clearly beat Wall Street expectations and presented a revenue forecast for 2027 exceeding analyst estimates.
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) & SolarEdge (SEDG): Shares of American solar technology producers are rising strongly (ENPH by 2.5%, SEDG by 5.7%) after reports that the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is preparing a draft ban on the import of foreign inverters to the USA.
• Concentrix (CNXC): Call-center shares plummeted by 20% after the company drastically lowered its financial forecasts for the entire fiscal year.
• Air Products (APD): Stock price rises by 8.8% despite information that the company will not proceed with the Louisiana Clean Energy Complex project and will write off up to USD 2.9 billion for this in the third fiscal quarter. Investors view the resignation from capital-intensive risk positively.
• Comcast (CMCSA): Shares gain 0.8%, after an initial move of over 2%. Analysts maintain positive ratings for the plan to spin off media assets (NBCUniversal and Sky). Furthermore, Deutsche Bank raised its recommendation for the stock to "Buy" with a target price of $32.
• MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR): Michael Saylor's firm loses 7.5% in the face of Bitcoin's price falling below the 60,000 USD barrier and analysts' decisions to lower target prices, which is related to a change in the financing model and a shift towards token sales by the company.