EURUSD at 1.1440 ahead of CPI release at 1:30 pm BST⏰
Today at 1:30 pm BST the US CPI inflation data will be released. Another 40-year record is expected with a reading of 7.3% y / y. The previous inflation reading was 7.0%. Core inflation is also expected to rise strongly to 5.9% y / y from 5.5% y / y. Inflation at such levels should only cement the Fed's decision to start tightening monetary policy.
On the other hand, there were signs that inflation may slightly disappoint compared to expectations. A large part of Bloomberg's best forecasters indicate that core inflation will fall to 0.4% MoM, compared to market consensus at 0.5% MoM. Many analysts also point out that the EURUSD pair was gaining on average after inflation readings over the past 12 months, regardless of the direction and scale of the surprise.
Start investing today or test a free demo
Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile app
EURUSD remains in short-term consolidation. A break above 1.1440 should lead to a re-test of the last local highs, which could potentially negate a double top formation. On the other hand, if EURUSD breaks below 1.1400 it could open the way towards 1.1250. It is also worth observing the behavior of bond yields, and in our case, TNOTE prices. Source: xStation5

The reaction of EURUSD to the previous readings was mostly positive. In January and December, the EURUSD rose after the CPI readings. On the other hand, in November and October, when the readings significantly exceeded the consensus, the EURUSD pair fell, although the downward move was much smaller compared to previously indicated upward moves. Source: Bloomberg
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.