Raymond James notes that despite the outbreak of war with Iran, equity markets have remained surprisingly resilient, with no significant sell-off. According to the bank, strong macroeconomic data from early 2026 and the structure of the oil market—where elevated prices are concentrated in the short term - have helped stabilize both credit and equity markets.
US100 (D1 timeframe)
This has limited downside pressure so far, but the next key test for investors will be the deadline set by Donald Trump for reaching a deal with Iran. From a technical perspective, Nasdaq 100 futures remain within a downward price channel and are still trading below the 200-session moving average, which lies დაახლოებით 200 points higher.
Source: xStation5
Ed Yardeni on the US equity market
Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, remains constructive on the S&P 500, arguing that current valuations are relatively attractive and that equities have historically performed well following major US military conflicts.
- The S&P 500 was higher two years after each of the last four major conflicts—World War II, the Korean War, the Gulf War, and the Iraq War—with gains ranging from 31% to 44%.
- Yardeni argues that current market levels offer relatively attractive entry points. The forward P/E ratio peaked at 23 last October and has since declined by around 15%.
- At the same time, forward earnings have risen by 12.7%, reaching record highs, suggesting that the decline in valuations reflects multiple compression rather than weaker fundamentals.
- Initially, the compression was driven by concerns over AI-related profitability, and later by fears that the conflict could trigger a global recession.
- Despite this, analysts have not materially revised down earnings expectations and continue to raise forecasts.
- According to FactSet data, the forward 12-month P/E has fallen to 19.8—below the five-year average of 19.9 and slightly above the 10-year average of 18.9.
Source: xStation5
Corporate news
- Netflix (NFLX.US) – shares are up nearly 2% pre-market after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from “neutral” to “buy,” citing continued leadership in content acquisition and development, as well as strong potential for capital returns to shareholders.
- Soleno Therapeutics – shares surged लगभग 40% after Neurocrine Biosciences announced an agreement to acquire the company for $53 per share in cash, valuing the deal at around $2.9 billion. The acquisition is expected to expand Neurocrine’s drug portfolio and strengthen its position in endocrinology and rare diseases.
- Twilio – shares gained more than 3% following an upgrade by Jefferies from “hold” to “buy,” with the bank highlighting Twilio’s key role in the development of voice-based artificial intelligence solutions.
Source: xStation5
BREAKING: US100 loses after lower than expected and inflationary US ISM services data 📉
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