Summary:
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US midterm elections will take place today, when to expect results?
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Key states in analysing results to the House
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Timetable for results from each state
The US midterm elections are taking place today. In this analysis we present a handful of technical information which could be useful in analysing incoming results from various states. All times are GMT unless otherwise stated.
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When do the elections kick off? First polling stations will be opened at 10am in Vermont. Then many other states on the Each Coast will start voting between 11am and 12pm. States where polling stations will open last are California or Oregon (3pm).
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When to expect first results? Results (exit polls) will be out when each state closes its polling stations meaning that the overall outcome at the country level is unlikely to be known before the morning European time. Here is the full timetable for all states.
The list of states when polling stations will be closed. Source: Telegraph
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Based on polls conducted by RealClearPolitics we may say that a base scenario assumes that Democrats will be able to take control over the House of Representatives while Republicans should gather enough votes to keep control in the Senate. However, some states will be particularly important given the fact that there have been no clear winners there. Below are the most competitive regions which could matter a lot for the final results.
States with the highest number of toss-ups according to the Cook Political Report. Source: NY Times
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Today’s elections will offer some hints before the presidential elections in November 2020. Even as the Trump’s surname will not be directly placed on ballots the overall outcome could be the first indicator whether Donald Trump will be able to continue his presidency in two years. Based on a serious of polls one may argue the Trump’s approval rating has not performed well of late which may indicate rather poor results for Republicans in the midterms.
The Trump's approval rating. Source: RealClearPolitics
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