Apple bucks deepening Nasdaq selloff! Perfect anti-AI hedge?

Apple (AAPL.US) shares add about 1.5% despite deepening fall of the Nasdaq 100 index (US100: -1.4%). The stock benefits from a just announced resolution of the company's dispute with the European Commision, as well as from the outflows of AI-centred sectors amid rising debt and inflation fears.

The company announced revisions to its European Union developer terms to settle an ongoing antitrust dispute under the Digital Markets Act following a previous €500 million fine. Effective October 1, the updates unify developer terms under a single framework, adjust commission rates, and introduce safeguards barring apps from redirecting users under 13 away from the App Store for external payments. 

The changes address EU regulatory mandates requiring platforms to permit alternative app distribution and unhindered customer steering toward third-party purchase options. The European Commission welcomed the adjustments and plans to oversee their implementation, helping Apple avert potential non-compliance penalties of up to 10% of annual worldwide revenue.

Technical Analysis: AAPL.US (D1)

Apple shares are staging a steady recovery after finding resilient support in the highlighted demand zone near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($300). This floor held firm following the post-earnings pullback triggered by concerns over softer Chinese demand. Crucially, the price remains resilient above the rising 100-day EMA ($298.53), keeping the primary bullish trend intact. Currently pushing above the 50.0% retracement ($309.11) and EMA10 ($309.06), Apple is approaching an immediate test of the 30-day EMA ($312.15). A clean breakout above this dynamic hurdle could clear the path toward $317.46 (38.2% Fibo). 

Source: xStation5

Does Apple Remain a Valid "Anti-AI" Trade?

Today’s gains in Apple shares also highlight its growing role as a hedge against the broader AI trade. The stock is trading in the green while semiconductor and memory heavyweights face renewed risk-off pressure (Nvidia: -2.3%, ASML: -4.6%, SK Hynix: -8.3%, SanDisk: -8.6%) as rising bond yields compress tech risk premiums.

This divergence first became prominent during the pre-FOMC selloff in AI names. Rather than committing massive capital expenditure to proprietary computing infrastructure, Apple has opted for strategic partnerships, driving its correlation with the semiconductor sector into negative territory.

However, this positioning comes with trade-offs. Soaring AI-driven demand has inflated memory component costs, threatening hardware margins ahead of key product launches. Furthermore, trading at 32 times forward earnings with moderating sales growth, Apple faces heightened valuation scrutiny and a string of analyst downgrades.

Even so, bulls contend that Apple's pristine balance sheet, aggressive buybacks, and decoupling from the chip cycle make it an attractive defensive haven whenever sentiment around aggressive AI infrastructure spending cools.

Year-to-Date returns of Apple and Nasdaq 100 futures. The two diverged heavily in July, revealing Apple’s anti-AI hedging capacity. Source: XTB Research