The largest cryptocurrency has managed to rise above $21,000 again. Despite the risk assets momentum of recent weeks, on-chain data provided by Glassnode indicates that the cryptocurrency rally may still be premature:
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Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appThe model shows the behavior of small (blue) and large BTC holders of so-called whales (red). Higher values indicate more activity, while lower values indicate less activity. A slump usually means a decrease in on-chain activity from all players regardless of the size of the BTC portfolio. Values above 1.2 usually represent a threshold for recovery and higher on-chain demand for Bitcoin. It follows that a return above the 1.2 level is a signal that demand is improving.Large investors so-called whales remain inactive, suggesting that the price increase can be used for distribution. The number of small transactions is outpacing larger transactions. Source: Glassnode
The indicator measures realized profit and loss, tracking the value of BTC when sold, compared to the value at the time of purchase. This allows us to find out if the total amount of realized gains exceeds the amount of realized losses, or vice versa. In this case, Glassnode used a 30-day moving average to offset short-term changes and better highlight broader changes in the profitability of BTC holders. The index is still below the key 1.0 line (the red horizontal line), a breach of which would indicate that BTC holders' yields are beginning to improve and that a new wave of demand is poised to absorb profit-taking. A climb above 1.0 would also indicate that investors holding BTC at a loss are exhausting themselves, this still has not happened. Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin chart, D1 interval. The price of BTC although still above the 100 and 200 session averages has stagnated at November levels, and bulls are having a hard time climbing above resistance near $21,500. The SMA100 and SMA200 averages are still far from the bullish intersection known as the 'golden cross', in which the SMA100 (black line) would cross the SMA200 from below. Source: xStation5
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