Bitcoin and other “risky” assets are losing value amid a broad market shift toward safe havens, driven by growing uncertainty over upcoming global tariff changes. Let us recall that the 90-day “pause” imposed by the US administration on mutual tariff increases ends on July 9, so we can expect that in the coming days, the main topic on the markets will be any agreements with the US or the lack thereof.
The worst-case scenario (taking into account the entry into force of all retaliatory tariffs after July 9) would result in an increase in the average tariff rate to 20% (almost 10 times the rate before Trump's presidency), which would undermine the position of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Paradoxically, this scenario could be beneficial for Bitcoin, which many investors consider to be a safe haven outside the ordinary fiat system, which in extraordinary situations could prove to be a safer destination for capital allocation than, for example, the dollar. The risks and opportunities are twofold, and it will depend on the final outcome of the agreements whether the digital asset will extend its long-term upward trend or whether it will break out of it to the downside.
At the moment, despite the technical pullback, BTC remains above the 50-day EMA (blue curve in the chart below), which is a potentially important support level for this instrument. Local resistance remains at the recent peak of nearly $110,500, which also hovers near Bitcoin's all-time highs.
Source: xStation 5
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