Bitcoin rises above 23 000 USD 📈 Euphoria enters the crypto market

Cryptocurrencies rebounded despite the still-uncertain situation in the U.S. banking sector, following the euphorically received intervention by regulators. Facing stressed conditions, investors now see a chance of no hike at the March meeting, which has propelled risky assets. Crypto market capitalization instantly returned above $1 trillion, recovering $70 billion in 24 hours. The rise in cryptocurrencies was primarily driven by the level of market oversold, the 'firing' of supply, comments by Janet Yellen, who indicated yesterday that she does not expect a repeat of 2008. Markets perceived the decision by US institutions as a potential prelude to monetary easing in the US. 

• Stablecoin company Circle, which held $3.3 billion in the collapsed SVB, almost recovered 1:1 peg to the dollar after news that all SVB deposits would be returned by the FDIC;
• Binance announced a $1 billion buyback of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Binancecoin. The funds will come from a previously segregated BUSD pool allocated by the exchange to support the industry.
• Bitcoin was created after the 2008 crisis as a decentralized alternative to fiat currencies influenced by central banks. In the face of the crisis,  BTC blockchain may see som inflows as a decentralized asset not directly linked to the banking sector;
• It's still unclear how sustainable the current unwinding is because we may see more banks fail in the US. It is uncertain whether the Fed's decision to help banks will ease sentiment and sell-offs. 

Average funding rates were at their lowest levels since the collapse of FTX (extreme market pessimism) which ultimately tipped the scales in favor of buyers and led to a massive liquidation of short positions. Source: Coinglass

The list of projects that rebounded the strongest includes Filecoin, Graph and Tron. Source: xStation5 

Looking at seasonality, Bitcoin has roughly 1 year and 2 months left until the next halving. Historically, halving. i.e. (a halving of supply and a 40% lower reward for miners) preceded the price rally. The current cycle still looks similar to previous cycles in terms of tin response. Source: HalvingTracker

The above Glassnode chart depicts extreme conditions, showing the four most popular indicators historically useful in determining the oversold level and future behavior of BTC. MVRV (green) indicates the unrealized gain/loss of the overall market. The aSOPR indicator (yellow) measures the extreme levels of realized gains and losses. Puell Multiple (blue) shows the profitability and income of miners, and Reserve Risk (red) shows the degree of involvement of so-called HODLers, who are historically the least likely to sell BTC. All 4 indicators are close to the neutral level of 1, which historically has usually preceded increases. However, this situation will not necessarily repeat itself in a potentially crisis environment. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin chart,H1 interval. The price has risen above the SMA200 (red) SMA100 (black) and SMA50 (yellow) averages, as well as the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave that began in the fall of 2022. The key price levels to hold appear to be the $21,500-$22,000 range with a possible rally toward $23,200 if risk sentiment resurfaces. These levels coincide with the 23.6 Fibo elimination. Potential support is at $19,700, which coincides with previous price reactions and the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement at $19,700. Source: xStation5