Black Friday, European CPI, & December Outlook

Black Friday, European CPI, December Outlook

Kathleen Brooks

Research Director UK

Is a Santa rally on the cards?

This week will be shortened in the US for Thanksgiving, which also means Black Friday is in focus at the end of this week. While Black Friday is no longer a one-day event, and instead spreads across weeks, investors will still be watching out for sales reports from the key retailers to see how sales have been impacted by a strong US economy and certainty about who the new President will be.

Last week the focus was on Nvidia’s earnings, however, this week we think that the market will be focusing on Amazon, Wall Mart and Target, to see if it will be another record-breaking Black Friday, or if the US consumer is starting to show restraint now that that there are some clouds on the horizon, including a potential rise in the unemployment rate and weakness in the housing market. Estimates are for a record 184.4 million people to shop in store and online over the Thanksgiving weekend. If this number is surpassed, then it could boost risk sentiment at the end of this week.

In the Eurozone, the focus will be on the November CPI estimate that will be released on Friday. The market is expecting the annual rate to rise to 2.3% from 2%, which is inline with global norms as energy prices have risen strongly of late.

Kathleen Brooks is XTB's UK research director with over 20 years of experience working across financial markets. She started specialising in the foreign exchange market before moving into retail trading. Her analysis is widely respected, and she is City AM's Analyst of the Year 2026. Kathleen's analysis is regularly featured across print, digital and broadcast media. She is frequently on BBC, Sky News, LBC and other global media outlets. Her analysis on the economic impact of Brexit, major IPOs, and global economic trends has positioned her as one of the UK's top financial analysts and commentators.

Go to the expert

21 August 2026, 14:47

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21 August 2026, 09:03

BREAKING: European PMIs stronger than expected 🔼 EURUSD approaches 1.17 level

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Economic Calendar: Batch of PMI reports will move attention away from bonds? (21.08.2026)

This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.

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