- Traders continue to bet on 1st Fed rate cut in September, 2nd Fed cut in October.
- Traders keep wagers on two Fed rate cuts by the end-2025.
01:30 PM BST, United States - Inflation Data for April:
- CPI: actual 0.2% MoM; forecast 0.3% MoM; previous -0.1% MoM;
- CPI: actual 2.3% YoY; forecast 2.4% YoY; previous 2.4% YoY;
- Core CPI: actual 0.2% MoM; forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.1% MoM;
- Core CPI: actual 2.8% YoY; forecast 2.8% YoY; previous 2.8% YoY;
Although the initial reaction after the release was erased on EURUSD, the pair is bouncing again. Lower-than-expected data—and more importantly, no increase in annual inflation dynamics compared to the previous month—give hope for less tariff-induced price pressure than initially feared. For the Fed, this is positive data, but a one-off report certainly doesn’t determine anything in the opinion of FOMC members.
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