The ISM Services PMI for the US jumped to 55.20 in January from 49.2 in the previous month, beating analysts’ expectations of 50.4 as capacity and logistics performance continue to improve and the majority of companies indicated that business is trending in a positive direction.
Faster increases were seen for business activity/production (60.4 vs 53.5) and backlogs of orders (52.9 vs 51.5) while a rebound was recorded for new orders (60.4 vs 45.2). Also, employment was unchanged (50 vs 49.4) as some companies still find it difficult to fill open positions, while others are facilitating staff reductions. Also, price pressures eased (67.8 vs 68.1) and supplier deliveries (50 vs 48.5) indicated unchanged performance.
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Today's better-than-expected jobs and ISM services data threw some cold water into expectations that the Fed will soon end its tightening campaign.
ISM Services jumped out from the contraction area in January - the biggest jump since June 2020. Source: Bloomberg via ZeroHedge
“Raw material availability and lead times have improved but still pose a challenge. In our outlook, we are positive about growth. Consumer confidence is returning, and people are more willing to spend money on luxury items.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
“Orders are strong, but it’s difficult to support customers’ expectations on delivery due to challenges in the supply chain.” [Other Services]
“Modest increase in sales activity following the holiday slowdown. Still seeing warning signs of a national/international recession. Higher interest rates having an impact. Outlook for the first quarter of 2023 is still projected lower than the same period in 2022.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
“New residential housing market is still reeling from mortgage rate increases. Sales have fallen off dramatically at entry-level price points, as costs are trending flat.” [Construction]
EURUSD deepens decline after ISM services PMI release. The pair broke below support at 1.0835. Source: xStation5
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