BREAKING: USDCAD rebounds after lower than expected CPI 🇨🇦 📈

12:30 GMT, Canada - inflation data for February:

Canadian CPI YoY Actual 1.8% (Forecast 1.9%, Previous 2.3%)
Canadian CPI MoM Actual 0.5% (Forecast 0.7%, Previous 0.0%)
Canadian CPI Trim Actual 2.3% (Forecast 2.3%, Previous 2.4%)
Canadian CPI Median Actual 2.3% (Forecast 2.4%, Previous 2.5%)

The inflation rate in Canada keeps lagging the 2-percent target. Source: XTB Reseach

Canada’s annual inflation slowed to 1.8% in February from 2.3% in January. This deceleration was primarily driven by a base-year effect following the end of the 2025 GST/HST tax holiday. As last year’s temporary price spike exited the 12-month calculation, it lowered headline figures for restaurant meals, alcohol, and toys.

Additional downward pressure came from cooling grocery prices and a 14.2% yearly drop in gasoline. However, monthly fuel costs rose 3.6% amid Middle East conflict concerns and supply disruptions. Excluding indirect taxes, inflation rose 1.9%, marking a consistent easing trend since December 2025.

USDCAD (M30)

Following data release, the USDCAD pair halted declines and rebouded significantly on US-Canada monetary policy divergance, currently testing the 23.6 Fibo level of the last descedning wave. Nevertheless, long term prospects may remain slightly on the bearish note, given the sustaiend growth of OIL prices above 100 USD.

Source: xStation5

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This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.

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