EURUSD has a big day ahead. Firstly, European Central Bank will announce the latest monetary policy decision at 12:45 pm BST. No change is expected to either interest rates or asset purchases. The Bank will also publish a set of macroeconomic projects but those are not expected to differ much from the previous ones. Key point of the day will be at 1:30 pm BST as not only ECB President Lagarde will begin a press conference but more importantly US CPI data for May will be released. Headline measure is expected to jump from 4.2% to 4.7% YoY while core gauge is seen accelerating from 3.0% to 3.4% YoY. Latest NFP report showed higher-than-expected wage growth and it hints that inflation may not be transitory after all. However, the question is whether the Fed will keep ignoring it and whether the market will continue to believe US central bankers.
Taking a look at EURUSD from a technical point of view, we can see that the pair failed to break above the resistance zone marked with a peak from late-February. The pair began to move sideways later on and broke below the lower limit of the upward channel. Note that a pin bar pattern was painted on D1 interval yesterday what may suggest that we are past a local high.
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