Cryptocurrencies started the week in a fairly positive mood, with Bitcoin trading above $35,000 and cryptocurrency Ripple extending its rally on a wave of speculation surrounding its adoption on Elon Musk's social networking platform X (former Twitter). Musk has indicated that blockchain Bitcoin and Dogecoin are not ready to fulfill such a role at present, and left open the question by considering Ripple (XRP).
U.S. dollar futures (USDIDX) are losing slightly and yields on 10-year treasuries are recovering minimally from the recent bond rally - the market is pricing in as much as 100bp cuts in 2024 but on Wednesday Powell will have an opportunity to tighten his rhetoric a bit if he feels it is necessary to rein in growing speculation about potential policy easing. Fed Barkin yesterday communicated that rates could be kept on hold for another 8 to 10 months from now - in principle Bitcoin may be favored by 'anti-dollar' headwinds. Also, the atmosphere in the financial markets is again optimistic which support also other cryptocurrencies than Bitcoin for example Ripple, Solana or Uniswap.
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Ripple (XRP) has been selected as the National Bank of Georgia's CBDC research partner, and Dubai regulators have allowed the cryptocurrency as a token to be used in a special economic zone (DFIC). Legal expert Jeremy Hogan spoke positively about Ripple's legal battle with the SEC, which he believes could end in a victory for fintech Brad Garlinghouse. As a result, Ripple has now become the 4th largest cryptocurrency by capitalization (nearly $38, billion) overtaking Binancecoin.
Bitcoin and Ripple charts (H4, D1)
Looking at Bitcoin chart, we see that the last upward impulse was 1:1 equal to the bullish price reaction of March 2023 when the serious problems of the banking sector began. If the situation were to repeat itself,we could potentially see a move towards $37,000 (MACD had a 'bullish' cooldown) in the coming days but Bitcoin could still face significant resistance ahead of the $40,000 level and the 'temptation' to realize gains exists as an increasing proportion of short-term investors find themselves in profit creating potential 'ballast' that they will be willing to realize if sentiment were to reverse. Source: xStation5
The price of Ripple has managed to break above the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave from the fall of 2022 at $0.68 - the price has been rising for days and fuel for the increases in recent days has been added by speculation around the XRP implementation on the X platform. However, if there are no specifics on the matter in the coming days, the temptation to realize profits may herald a correction - the RSI on the D1. interval currently indicates extreme overbought levels at 85 points - close to the euphoria of June when the market saw the project's chances of winning against the SEC. On the other hand, the selection of Ripple to X before the fintech company settles its case against the SEC may be in question especially given that Musk's acquisition of Twitter itself is currently under investigation by US regulators. Source: xStation5
News
- Analysts at VanEck have indicated that Solana could become a long-term beneficiary of cryptocurrency speculation and its price could rise as high as $3,000 by 2030 or fall below $10 if the altcoin market shrinks
- Historically, Bitcoin gained about 35% in November - but it is difficult to compare the current situation with the historical one because some of the data comes from a situation when Bitocin's capitalization was a fraction of the current one - it was easier to have price spikes then. However, a positive fact seems to be the increase in the volume of large transactions above $100,000 on the Bitcoin network
- Swiss banks, including UBS in cooperation with the SNB and the Finance Ministry are said to be working on new regulations, according to Reuters sources, which may include higher withdrawal fees and restrictions on them to prevent systemic problems. Some analysts spoke out after these reports positive about Bitcoin, which could provide an alternative to the centralized banking system
- Speculators expect the price of the Avalanche cryptocurrency to fall on November 24 because the project will unlock another pool of tokens worth $107 million diluting AVAX (2.7% of the total supply) - however, recent such events have had varying effects and the price did not always fall on the day of the unlocking while the market behaved more cautiously before such events occurred
The 'altcoin season' indicator presented by Glassnode analysis indicates that the market is experiencing its most positive sentiment since November 2021 - momentum may favor smaller cryptocurrencies, and Ethereum alone has been overvalued relative to Bitcoin for nearly 470 days. The altcoin sector rose more than 21% in a single day when Bitcoin's price exceeded $30,000, indicating that BTC's gains are still drawing speculative capital flowing into smaller cryptocurrencies. Source: Glassnode
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