- Bitcoin breaks through the $92k level and retests historic highs despite two days in a row of net outflows from ETFs; now drops below $91k again
- Smaller cryptocurrencies on an upward surge; Tezos, Algorand and Stellar gain in the 20-40% range; Ethereum still below $3,200
- The dollar index (USDIDX) weakens, but yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds gain symbolically and hold at 4.45%
- U.S. stock market gains support risk appetite; S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gain 0.5% and 1%, respectively
- Bitwise lists for BITW crypto fund transition into ETF (ETP) on New York Stock Exchange; the fund accumulates cryptocurrencies 'cap-weighted' from top10
The sentiment of the cryptocurrency market is upbeat today, with the number of BTC addresses in profit currently at around 98% and holding in a zone that has historically proven to be a period of 'overheating' that lasts about 20 days on average. The market is approaching this historical average today, and although traders are struggling to break above $92,000, another upward impulse with solid technical fundamentals and new capital inflows into the market is not out of the question.
Nevertheless, the last two sessions have seen net outflows from U.S. ETFs, with lower activity from BlackRock (IBIT), which by some market participants may signal a possible distribution and gradually depleting demand. Bernstein analysts expect the price of BTC to reach $200,000 in 2024. The prospect of looser regulations in the US and the development of business based on 'De-Fi' is improving the mood of investors following the so-called altcoin market; against the background of many of them, Ethereum currently looks quite surprisingly 'weak'. _c649850d01.png)
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Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile appRecent sessions have seen net outflows from ETFs at Fidelity and Ark Invest. Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
We're also seeing net outflows from Ethereum ETFs, although activity in them is generally traceable, and disproportionately lower, than Bitcoin. This represents some variation on previous cycles, in which Ethereum tended to do much better during the 'altcoin market growth' phase, not only against Bitcoin, but also against other, smaller top-20 cryptocurrencies. Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg Finance L.P._45f5527760.png)
The average of inflows into ETFs over the last 20 sessions (one month) approached record levels in the spring of 2024. Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Bitcoin chart (D1, H1 interval)
Looking at the daily interval, we see that the key long-term support is located at the EMA200 level, near $65,000. In the event of a pullback, in the short term, traders may look for support around $85k-$86k, which marks recent price reactions. A move aimed at erasing the post-election gains could even lead to a test of the USD75k area; corrections of 15-20% have been quite common in past BTC booms.
Source: xStation5
A drop below $90k and the EMA100 (black line) would make a profit-taking and supply-dominated scenario at levels between $92k and $93k more likely. In such a scenario, Bitcoin may enter a slightly longer correction, after the recent increases.
Source: xStation5
Tezos is rebounding from multi-year lows, and the extent of the recent upward impulse implies room for a 20% move from current levels.
Source: xStation5
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