Crypto news: Bitcoin muted before awaited SEC decision 🕤

In anticipation, of the US SEC regulator's decisions on spot ETFs, bitcoin is trading around $44,000 and has managed to make up a good portion of recent declines. The U.S. dollar is trading flat today, and stock market sentiment is rather mixed, with futures on major benchmarks overseas losing. There are many indications that the SEC may delay a decision 'until the last minute' i.e. until January 10:

ETF decision in the spotlight

• Anonymous sources at BlackRock, quoted by VanEck's Matthew Siegel, suggest that BlackRock has raised some $2 billion in investor capital, which will feed into the iShares Bitcoin Trust, in the first week of trading if the SEC allows issuers
• VanEck analysts pointed out that historically, ETFs created by BlackRock have experienced sizable investment inflows in the first days after the start of trading. Z
• The assumed demand for BTC resulting from the potential creation of spot ETFs is about $40 billion over a 2-year horizon (about 1 million bitcoins bought, more than 5% of the total current supply in the market and more than half of the currently accumulated BTC on exchanges).
• According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, the SEC may make a decision this morning around 8am US time (around 2pm in Poland), after receiving updated S-1 applications (all of which were filed over the weekend)
• Media reports indicate that the SEC had no comment on the latest S-1 application updates. Bloomberg analysts symbolically raised the odds of SEC approval, which are now 'above 90%' in their estimation 
• Analysts quoted by Reuters, however, still believe a final decision will be made on January 9 or 10 (tomorrow or the day after). The SEC has until January 10 (Wednesday) to decide whether it will allow the applications of the Ark Invest and 21 Shares funds - the final dates for both of them.

Bitcoin chart (M30, D1)

BTC quotes opened the new year strongly and quickly unwound much of the dynamic correction that wiped out bullish positions worth several hundred million dollars from the entire crypto market last week. Looking at the magnitude of the last two strong upward impulses, we see a mirror-image similarity between the two reactions (increases of about $4,000), and if the 1:1 scenario will repeat, the potential rally on the news of ETF approval could lead to the psychological resistance zone of $50,000. Of course, the final reaction of the market to such information is unknown, and still a possible scenario is declines (selling facts, realization of profits).

Source: xStation5

Looking at the H4 interval, we can see that the SMA200 average (red line) has been acting as an important support level since the price of Bitcoin rose dynamically in October. Currently, the upward momentum is slowing down a bit, but the price has managed to return above it, after the last two strong selling spurts. However, a potential next test of it, at $43,000, could initiate a stronger sell-off, even towards the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement at $38500, where we also see previous price reactions and a level close to the average purchase price of Bitcoin by short-term investors (which has often served as an important 'on-chain' support point in BTC's upward cycles). 

Source: xStation5