Bitcoin opens the new nearly $70,000, but until now significant inflows into ETFs failed to push the price near the ATH. Bitcoin's 15-day average volatility is currently at historic lows (in the 6% lower range), but historically it has been able to fall even lower, while this has always implied a strong downward or upward movement. In the current week, the main thing to watch will be Wednesday, when investors will receive new CPI inflation data from the US and follow Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's conference.
Risks from the Fed and industry news
- It seems that bitcoin may be favoured by Powell's 'anti-dollar' dovish signals, and as such, the market may see possible announcements on the still-open topic of policy easing in the fall. Additionally, a lower-than-forecast CPI could support momentum in both cryptocurrencies and Wall Street, putting pressure on yields.
- However, it is still uncertain what stance Powell will present in the face of a very strong labour market and higher wages for Americans, and whether how much the revision of inflation forecasts will surprise in a 'hawkish', unfavorable direction for BTC. Interestingly, BlackRock reported a sizable inflow into its BTC fund (IBIT) on Friday, despite rising yields and a strengthening dollar following the NFP report.
- BTC's dominance over other cryptocurrencies has increased by 1 percentage point in the past week and now stands at 51.4% according to CoinMarketCap data. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $2.6 trillion of which nearly $1.35 trillion is Bitcoin. Animoca Brands expects cryptocurrency adoption to begin in about 12 to 18 months, and this will happen thanks to the gaming and Web3 sectors as the metaverse trend gradually develops. However, most of the altcoins associated with this trend, including Decentraland are doing very poorly.
DECENTRALAND (D1 interval)
After Friday's NFP data, the price of Decentraland (MANA) settled below the 50-day moving average (yellow line) and now bulls are struggling to get back above the 71.6 Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 upward wave at $0.41.
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ETF inflows into BTC remain solid
U.S. exchange-traded funds buying BTC saw their last significant outflows from May 9 to 10, and the current upward streak in net inflows has now continued for 29 days in a row.
ETF inflows (updated through June 7, 2024). Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. , XTB Research
Bitcoin (D1 interval)
Looking at the daily chart of BTC, we see that a key short-term support level runs around $65,000. A drop below this level could suggest the potential bearish formation of a second lower peak. However, rising to $72.000 may suggest strong demand and re-testing ATH.
Source: xStation5
Ethereum (D1 interval)
The price of ETH is again below $3.7k, and a potential dovish reaction to Powell's speech on Wednesday could push the price of the second largest cryptocurrency to the area of $3.9k-$4k.
Source: xStation5
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