Bitcoin is posting solid gains today, rebounding alongside the positive opening of equity markets after a turbulent weekend. BTC ETFs have returned to buying activity and have accumulated the cryptocurrency for nearly 10 consecutive trading sessions.
- The market appears to be gradually shifting its focus away from the situation in Iran and the Middle East, likely expecting shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to normalize within a few weeks. As a result, traders are not anticipating a lasting disruption to oil supply in the short term. Strategic reserves released in the United States and the Middle East/Africa region (MEA) are also helping ease concerns about a potential shock in the oil market.
- Bitcoin seems to be benefiting from this trend. Since the start of the conflict, BTC has clearly outperformed gold, which has pulled back today below $5,000 per ounce. Following Bitcoin’s move, Ethereum and shares of crypto-related companies are also gaining, including Strategy, Circle, and BitMine Immersion, all of which are rising ahead of the US market open.
- BTC’s price is approaching the $74,000–$75,000 zone, where a major resistance level is located. This level is partly linked to dealer gamma positioning in the options market. If BTC moves above $75,000, funds may be forced to buy additional BTC as prices rise until the options expire. On the other hand, $75,000 could prove to be a strong resistance level, potentially exposing structural fragility in the market once again.
Bitcoin chart (D1)
Looking at the dynamics of the current pullback, there are striking similarities to the previous corrective impulse, which also slowed around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. There is no guarantee that the same scenario will repeat now, but it is clear that BTC has approached a key short-term resistance level. A rejection from the current levels could push the price well below $60,000.
Source: xStation5
During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin experienced three major waves of selling pressure. The first occurred in winter, driven by inflation concerns. The second was triggered by the Luna/Terra ecosystem collapse, and the final wave came in autumn when the FTX collapse severely impacted market sentiment. The last decline at that time pushed prices down by roughly 40%.
Source: xStation5
ETF flows
ETF inflows are gradually recovering.
Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg Finance LP
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