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Wall Street is heading toward the end of the session in moderately positive territory. Nasdaq 100 futures (US100: +0.5%) and S&P 500 futures (US500: +0.2%) are trading higher, US2000 is flat, and US30 is slightly down (-0.05%).
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The likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown is rising, meaning most federal agencies would suspend operations if Congress fails to pass a budget before Wednesday. A shutdown would reduce public services and leave around 800,000 federal employees unpaid. For markets, a particularly important consequence would be the delayed release of Friday’s NFP report, which the BLS would not publish on time in the event of a shutdown. Trump has threatened permanent federal layoffs if the budget is not approved.
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The Dallas Fed manufacturing index plunged sharply to -8.7 points in September 2025, well below the Bloomberg forecast of -1 point.
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European equity markets started the week with gains. The FTSE 100 rose 0.15%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.1%, the Dutch AEX led with a 0.36% increase, and Germany’s DAX added 0.15%.
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Spain’s inflation for September 2025 came in below expectations. Annual CPI rose 2.9% (forecast 3.1%), while prices fell 0.4% month-on-month. Core CPI increased 2.3% YoY, slightly lower than the previous month.
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Economic sentiment in the eurozone for September 2025 reached 95.5 points, slightly above forecasts (95.2) and the previous reading (95.2). Consumer confidence improved to -14.9 points (forecast: -14.9), while industrial sentiment remained stable at -10.3 (forecast: -10.9). However, the services sector showed weaker results, suggesting ongoing imbalances in the economy.
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In forex, the U.S. dollar continues to face downward pressure (USDIDX: -0.2%) amid shutdown risks. The Japanese yen benefits most from the uncertainty, trading as the strongest G10 currency today (USDJPY: -0.6%, EURJPY: -0.4%). AUDUSD gains 0.4% ahead of the RBA decision, while Nordic currencies lag, particularly the oil-correlated Norwegian krone (USDNOK: +0.2%).
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WTI crude is down over 3% on concerns that OPEC+ may increase production above the planned 137k barrels per day from November, potentially causing oversupply. Analysts predict that the surplus could push oil prices down to $50–60 per barrel. Investors await OPEC decisions and comments from the Saudi energy minister.
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Cryptocurrency sentiment remains relatively optimistic, partly supported by improved Wall Street sentiment. Major cryptocurrencies are rising despite ETF outflows: Bitcoin adds 2.7% to $114,200, and Ethereum gains 2.6% to $4,160.
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Precious metals continue to rise. Gold is up over 1.6%, approaching the psychological $4,000 per ounce barrier (currently $3,830). Silver and platinum are also gaining, up 1.5% and 1%, respectively.
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